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In The Rafters

TEX @ PHI

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Afternoon GameOutdoor4:05 PM ET⚾ Jacob Latz vs Aaron NolaMLB.TV
Result readTexas Rangers

Texas Rangers 5 · Philadelphia Phillies 4

Final
Texas Rangers19-21-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeCitizens Bank ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Texas Rangers gets the model’s nod thanks to Texas Rangers’s margin advantage, with Philadelphia Phillies’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Philadelphia Phillies at 60%. Actual: Texas Rangers by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Texas Rangers

Philadelphia Phillies

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL

Texas Rangers

Luis Curvelo15-Day-ILChris Martin15-Day-ILWyatt Langford10-Day-ILJosh Smith10-Day-ILCody Freeman10-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Texas Rangers
ED Ezequiel Duran LF · #20 EC Evan Carter CF · #32 BN Brandon Nimmo RF · #24 JJ Josh Jung 3B · #6 CS Corey Seager SS · #5 JS Josh Smith 2B · #8 JB Jake Burger 1B · #21 MG MacKenzie Gore P · #1 DJ Danny Jansen C · #9
Philadelphia Phillies
KS Kyle Schwarber LF · #12 JC J. Crawford CF · #2 AG Adolis Garcia RF · #53 AB Alec Bohm 3B · #28 TT Trea Turner SS · #7 BS Bryson Stott 2B · #5 BH Bryce Harper 1B · #3 CS C. Sanchez P · #61 RM Rafael Marchan C · #13

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 🏃 DoubleGarcía doubled to left, Bohm scored, Sosa to third.9th Inning3–1
  2. ScoreMcCutchen singled to left, Langford scored, McCutchen to second.10th Inning5–3
  3. ScoreNimmo scored on Duran wild pitch, Langford to second on wild pitch by Duran.10th Inning4–3
  4. ScoreMarsh singled to right, Sosa scored and García scored.9th Inning3–3
  5. ScoreNimmo scored on Duran wild pitch, Langford to second on wild pitch by Duran.10th Inning4–3
  6. ScoreHarper singled to right, Realmuto scored, Kemp to third.10th Inning5–4

Scoring by Inning

Team12345678910RHE
Texas Rangers10200000025102
Philadelphia Phillies0000000031450

Texas Rangers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Brandon Nimmo RF·2-5522000124.250.333.250
Wyatt Langford LF·1-5511000117.111.111.111
Corey Seager SS·2-4412111218.500.556.875
Jake Burger 1B·2-5512210315.556.5561.222
Joc Pederson 1B·0-1100001013.000.333.000
Andrew McCutchen LF1-3301100012.400.400.600
Josh Smith 2B·1-4401001122.143.250.143
Josh Jung 3B·0-4400000113.000.000.000
Evan Carter CF·1-4401000124.167.167.167
Danny Jansen C·0-4400000315.125.125.125

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Jacob Latz RP·4.000013068-420.0068
Cole Winn RP1.010012019-130.0019
Jalen Beeks RP1.00000107-70.007
Jakob Junis RP2.000002023-160.0023
Robert Garcia RP0.212011018-120.0018
Chris Martin RP0.121001012-100.0012
Tyler Alexander RP1.011001021-110.0021

Philadelphia Phillies

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Trea Turner SS·0-5500000223.222.222.222
Kyle Schwarber LF·0-5500000419.111.111.444
Bryce Harper 1B·1-5501100019.111.111.111
Alec Bohm 3B·1-5511000023.250.333.625
Bryson Stott 2B·0-2200001010.333.429.333
Edmundo Sosa 2B0-001000108.0001.000.000
Adolis Garcia RF·1-4411100114.125.125.250
Brandon Marsh LF·1-4401200119.375.375.625
J.T. Realmuto C·1-4411000218.143.250.143
Justin Crawford CF·0-2200001112.333.429.333
Otto Kemp LF0-000000003.0001.000.000

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Aaron Nola SP·5.053327291-625.4091
Tanner Banks RP1.010000010-70.0010
Jose Alvarado RP1.010002018-120.0018
Tim Mayza RP2.010012032-180.0032
Jhoan Duran RP1.022102022-135.4022

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 1st InningHarper flied out to right.
  2. 9th InningSosa walked, Bohm to second.
  3. 1st InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
  4. 9th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4

Scoring Plays

  1. 9th InningGarcía doubled to left, Bohm scored, Sosa to third.3–1
  2. 10th InningMcCutchen singled to left, Langford scored, McCutchen to second.5–3
  3. 10th InningNimmo scored on Duran wild pitch, Langford to second on wild pitch by Duran.4–3
  4. 9th InningMarsh singled to right, Sosa scored and García scored.3–3
  5. 10th InningNimmo scored on Duran wild pitch, Langford to second on wild pitch by Duran.4–3
  6. 10th InningHarper singled to right, Realmuto scored, Kemp to third.5–4
  7. 3rd InningBurger homered to left (374 feet), Nimmo scored.3–0
  8. 1st InningSeager homered to right center (392 feet).1–0

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