SD @ BOS
Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor2:10 PM ET65°F · 10 mph wind · overcast⚾ Michael King vs Sonny GrayMLB.TVPadres.TV
Result readBoston Red Sox
San Diego Padres 2 · Boston Red Sox 5
Final
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Boston Red Sox: San Diego Padres’s scoring margin profile and Boston Red Sox’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 51%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 3.
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 51%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleCampusano doubled to center, Sheets scored.2–2
- ScoreSheets singled to right, Andujar scored.1–2
- ScoreDurbin singled to center, Duran scored.0–2
- ScoreRafaela singled to center, Mayer scored, Rafaela to second.0–1
- ScoreMayer homered to right center (385 feet), Abreu scored.2–5
- ScoreContreras homered to center (423 feet).2–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 | 9 | 0 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .200 | .310 | .240 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .143 | .172 | .179 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .185 | .241 | .333 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .182 | .357 | .273 |
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .318 | .348 | .636 |
| Miguel Andujar 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .200 | .250 | .333 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .250 | .286 | .350 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .167 | .259 | .167 |
| Luis Campusano C· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .143 | .143 | .286 |
| Bryce Johnson RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .200 | .333 | .400 |
| Freddy Fermin C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .071 | .133 | .071 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King SP· | 5.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 81-58 | 3.38 | 81 |
| Wandy Peralta RP | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 20-14 | 2.45 | 20 |
| Ron Marinaccio RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-8 | 3.60 | 10 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .231 | .310 | .346 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .121 | .121 | .242 |
| Jarren Duran LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .182 | .333 | .227 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .174 | .367 | .304 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .393 | .393 | .821 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .045 | .087 | .045 |
| Marcelo Mayer 2B· | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .294 | .368 | .647 |
| Carlos Narvaez C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .417 | .417 | .417 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .227 | .261 | .364 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray SP· | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 87-57 | 4.50 | 87 |
| Greg Weissert RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17-11 | 7.36 | 17 |
| Justin Slaten RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-7 | 0.00 | 9 |
| Aroldis Chapman RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21-11 | 0.00 | 21 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningAndujar struck out swinging.
- 9th InningLaureano flied out to right.
- 9th InningBogaerts flied out to right.
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningCampusano doubled to center, Sheets scored.2–2
- 5th InningSheets singled to right, Andujar scored.1–2
- 4th InningDurbin singled to center, Duran scored.0–2
- 3rd InningRafaela singled to center, Mayer scored, Rafaela to second.0–1
- 6th InningMayer homered to right center (385 feet), Abreu scored.2–5
- 6th InningContreras homered to center (423 feet).2–3