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In The Rafters

CIN @ TEX

Joshua Silvia
11–17 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:05 PM CT⚾ Rhett Lowder vs Kumar RockerMLB.TVReds.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds 2 · Texas Rangers 0

Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Texas Rangers19-21-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeGlobe Life FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Cincinnati Reds gets the model’s nod thanks to Texas Rangers’s margin advantage, with Texas Rangers’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Texas Rangers at 76%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Cincinnati Reds

Texas Rangers

Injury Report

Texas Rangers

Luis Curvelo15-Day-ILChris Martin15-Day-ILWyatt Langford10-Day-ILJosh Smith10-Day-ILCody Freeman10-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37
Texas Rangers
ED Ezequiel Duran LF · #20 EC Evan Carter CF · #32 BN Brandon Nimmo RF · #24 JJ Josh Jung 3B · #6 CS Corey Seager SS · #5 JS Josh Smith 2B · #8 JB Jake Burger 1B · #21 MG MacKenzie Gore P · #1 DJ Danny Jansen C · #9

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreDe La Cruz singled to center, McLain scored.1st Inning1–0
  2. ScoreStewart singled to right, De La Cruz scored.1st Inning2–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Cincinnati Reds200000000280
Texas Rangers000000000041

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
TJ Friedl CF·0-4400001123.077.250.077
Matt McLain 2B·2-4412000115.267.389.300
Elly De La Cruz SS·1-4411100118.219.286.500
Sal Stewart 1B·2-4402100112.407.529.741
Eugenio Suarez 3B·0-4400000214.226.250.419
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B0-000000000.105.190.105
Nathaniel Lowe 1B·1-4401000016.250.250.375
Spencer Steer LF·2-4402000010.200.250.400
Will Benson RF·0-220000007.133.188.267
Dane Myers CF0-220000005.267.267.267
Jose Trevino C·0-4400000116.091.167.091

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Rhett Lowder SP·6.030024082-541.6482
Graham Ashcraft RP1.000011018-113.0018
Tony Santillan RP1.000001011-80.0011
Emilio Pagan RP1.010021023-128.4423

Texas Rangers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Brandon Nimmo RF·0-3300001111.375.459.563
Wyatt Langford LF·0-4400000319.167.167.306
Corey Seager SS·1-4401000014.267.361.567
Jake Burger 1B·1-3301001015.333.371.576
Joc Pederson 1B·0-440000009.000.118.000
Josh Smith 2B·0-3300001022.125.250.125
Josh Jung 3B·1-4401000115.143.172.143
Ezequiel Duran LF0-000000000.273.273.636
Evan Carter CF·1-2201002121.273.407.409
Danny Jansen C·0-330000018.250.250.458

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Kumar Rocker SP·5.062213080-523.6080
Jalen Beeks RP1.010000016-110.0016
Jacob Latz RP1.000002015-90.0015
Carter Baumler RP1.000001012-83.1812
Tyler Alexander RP1.010001013-91.8013

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 5th InningDe La Cruz grounded out to shortstop.
  2. 9th InningBurger walked.
  3. 5th InningPitch 6 : Ball In Play

Scoring Plays

  1. 1st InningDe La Cruz singled to center, McLain scored.1–0
  2. 1st InningStewart singled to right, De La Cruz scored.2–0

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