SD @ BOS
Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor4:10 PM ET38°F · 12 mph wind · overcast⚾ Randy Vasquez vs Connelly EarlyMLB.TVPadres.TV
Result readSan Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 3 · Boston Red Sox 2
Final
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
San Diego Padres is the model’s call — San Diego Padres on the margin numbers, Boston Red Sox on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 54%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 1.
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 54%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreMonasterio grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Rafaela scored, Anthony out at second.2–2
- ScoreJohnson grounded out to shortstop, Fermin scored, France to third.1–0
- 💣 Home RunLaureano singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored on error, Laureano to second, Laureano safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Anthony.3–2
- ScoreMayer hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.1–1
- 🏃 DoubleFermin doubled to left, Andujar scored, Machado to third.2–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | .200 | .294 | .267 |
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .308 | .357 | .577 |
| Miguel Andujar 3B· | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .300 | .333 | .450 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 25 | .174 | .406 | .261 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .125 | .152 | .156 |
| Freddy Fermin C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .118 | .211 | .176 |
| Ty France 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .143 | .143 | .143 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .143 | .226 | .143 |
| Bryce Johnson RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .125 | .222 | .250 |
| Nick Castellanos RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .154 | .214 | .231 |
| Jackson Merrill CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .185 | .241 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Vasquez SP· | 6.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 83-57 | 0.75 | 83 |
| Jeremiah Estrada RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10-5 | 9.82 | 10 |
| Adrian Morejon RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 29-20 | 3.86 | 29 |
| Mason Miller RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11-9 | 0.00 | 11 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .267 | .333 | .433 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .108 | .108 | .216 |
| Jarren Duran LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .200 | .333 | .240 |
| Andruw Monasterio SS | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .143 | .143 | .286 |
| Aroldis Chapman RP | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .185 | .353 | .296 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .387 | .406 | .774 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .080 | .115 | .080 |
| Masataka Yoshida LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .000 | .400 | .000 |
| Marcelo Mayer 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .250 | .304 | .550 |
| Carlos Narvaez C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .280 | .308 | .400 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connelly Early SP· | 4.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 88-53 | 2.89 | 88 |
| Ryan Watson RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26-13 | 3.60 | 26 |
| Danny Coulombe RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8-6 | 3.86 | 8 |
| Justin Slaten RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19-11 | 0.00 | 19 |
| Zack Kelly RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-8 | 0.00 | 9 |
| Aroldis Chapman RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17-13 | 2.25 | 17 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningMonasterio grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Rafaela scored, Anthony out at second.2–2
- 3rd InningAndujar doubled to left.
- 8th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
- 3rd InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
- 7th InningMachado grounded out to third.
- 3rd InningStory grounded out to third.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningMonasterio grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Rafaela scored, Anthony out at second.2–2
- 2nd InningJohnson grounded out to shortstop, Fermin scored, France to third.1–0
- 9th InningLaureano singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored on error, Laureano to second, Laureano safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Anthony.3–2
- 2nd InningMayer hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.1–1
- 3rd InningFermin doubled to left, Andujar scored, Machado to third.2–1