CIN @ TEX
Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameIndoor1:35 PM CT⚾ Chase Burns vs Jack LeiterMLB.TVReds.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 2 · Texas Rangers 1
Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Texas Rangers19-21-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeGlobe Life FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Cincinnati Reds: Texas Rangers’s scoring margin profile and Texas Rangers’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Texas Rangers at 76%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 1.
Pre-game pick: Texas Rangers at 76%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
Texas Rangers
- MacKenzie Gore SP · #1
- Nathan Eovaldi SP · #17
- Jacob Latz RP · #67
- Brandon Nimmo RF · #24
Injury Report
Texas Rangers
Luis Curvelo15-Day-ILChris Martin15-Day-ILWyatt Langford10-Day-ILJosh Smith10-Day-ILCody Freeman10-Day-IL
Cincinnati Reds
Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreDe La Cruz singled to right, McLain scored.2–1
- ScorePederson homered to right (361 feet).1–1
- ScoreSuárez singled to center, De La Cruz scored.1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Cincinnati Reds
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .100 | .270 | .100 |
| Matt McLain 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 23 | .235 | .366 | .265 |
| Elly De La Cruz SS· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .243 | .300 | .486 |
| Sal Stewart 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .367 | .500 | .667 |
| Eugenio Suarez 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .235 | .278 | .412 |
| Spencer Steer LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .207 | .250 | .379 |
| Dane Myers CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .267 | .267 | .267 |
| Tyler Stephenson C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .143 | .182 | .286 |
| Noelvi Marte RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .083 | .214 | .083 |
| Will Benson RF | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .235 | .278 | .412 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .130 | .200 | .130 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns SP· | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 87-59 | 0.82 | 87 |
| Pierce Johnson RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20-11 | 8.10 | 20 |
| Sam Moll RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6-3 | 0.00 | 6 |
| Connor Phillips RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28-19 | 3.60 | 28 |
| Brock Burke RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14-9 | 0.00 | 14 |
Texas Rangers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .389 | .463 | .556 |
| Wyatt Langford LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .150 | .150 | .275 |
| Corey Seager SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .235 | .325 | .500 |
| Jake Burger 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .324 | .359 | .568 |
| Joc Pederson 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | .059 | .190 | .235 |
| Evan Carter CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .269 | .387 | .385 |
| Kyle Higashioka C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .273 | .385 | .273 |
| Josh Smith 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | .115 | .258 | .115 |
| Sam Haggerty LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .286 | .286 | .286 |
| Ezequiel Duran LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .231 | .231 | .538 |
| Andrew McCutchen LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .353 | .389 | .647 |
| Josh Jung 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .138 | .167 | .138 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Leiter SP· | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 85-55 | 2.45 | 85 |
| Jacob Latz RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19-12 | 0.00 | 19 |
| Cole Winn RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-10 | 0.00 | 14 |
| Robert Garcia RP | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20-8 | 3.00 | 20 |
| Chris Martin RP | 1.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-12 | 9.00 | 13 |
| Jalen Beeks RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0.00 | 2 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningMcCutchen struck out swinging.
- 8th InningPederson walked.
- 7th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 7th InningHigashioka flied out to center, Carter to third.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
- 7th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
- 7th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningDe La Cruz singled to right, McLain scored.2–1
- 7th InningPederson homered to right (361 feet).1–1
- 4th InningSuárez singled to center, De La Cruz scored.1–0