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InTheRafters.com

SD @ BOS

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET⚾ Walker Buehler vs Ranger SuarezESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVPadres.TV
Result readSan Diego Padres

San Diego Padres 8 · Boston Red Sox 6

Final
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans San Diego Padres because San Diego Padres owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Boston Red Sox has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 50%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

San Diego Padres

Boston Red Sox

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL

San Diego Padres

Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

San Diego Padres
RL Ramon Laureano LF · #5 JM J. Merrill CF · #3 FT F. Tatis Jr. RF · #23 MM Manny Machado 3B · #13 XB X. Bogaerts SS · #2 JC J. Cronenworth 2B · #9 GS Gavin Sheets 1B · #30 YD Yu Darvish P · #11 FF Freddy Fermin C · #54
Boston Red Sox
JD Jarren Duran LF · #16 CR C. Rafaela CF · #3 WA Wilyer Abreu RF · #52 CD Caleb Durbin 3B · #5 TS Trevor Story SS · #10 MM Marcelo Mayer 2B · #11 WC W. Contreras 1B · #40 BB Brayan Bello P · #66 CN Carlos Narvaez C · #75

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreMerrill homered to left center (384 feet).8th Inning7–6
  2. 🏃 TripleAbreu tripled to right, Duran scored.3rd Inning0–3
  3. ScoreTatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Sheets scored.9th Inning8–6
  4. 🏃 DoubleYoshida doubled to right, Abreu scored.3rd Inning0–4
  5. 🏃 DoubleYoshida doubled to second, Abreu scored and Contreras scored.7th Inning6–6
  6. ScoreMachado homered to left (365 feet), Campusano scored and Merrill scored.5th Inning6–4

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
San Diego Padres0003300118120
Boston Red Sox004000200692

San Diego Padres

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ramon Laureano LF·0-5500000123.258.303.484
Fernando Tatis Jr. RF·1-3311101120.212.308.303
Jackson Merrill CF·3-5533210014.250.294.469
Manny Machado 3B·2-4422310113.222.417.407
Miguel Andujar 3B·0-3300001222.261.320.391
Xander Bogaerts SS·3-3303001019.200.243.257
Nick Castellanos RF·1-3301200013.188.235.250
Ty France 1B0-110000001.125.125.125
Jake Cronenworth 2B·0-4400000018.125.200.125
Luis Campusano C·1-331100028.200.200.300
Gavin Sheets 1B1-111100006.286.318.429
Freddy Fermin C0-000000000.118.211.176

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Walker Buehler SP·2.234434061-339.4561
Kyle Hart RP2.110010028-185.4028
Bradgley Rodriguez RP1.231102025-191.6925
Wandy Peralta RP0.121100010-54.5010
Jeremiah Estrada RP1.000001013-87.7113
Mason Miller RP1.000003012-90.0012

Boston Red Sox

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Roman Anthony LF·0-4410001119.235.316.382
Trevor Story SS·1-5501000218.119.119.214
Jarren Duran LF·1-5511200318.200.314.267
Willson Contreras 1B·0-4410001224.161.333.258
Wilyer Abreu RF·3-4423100015.429.444.857
Masataka Yoshida LF·3-4403300013.231.474.385
Ceddanne Rafaela CF0-000000000.280.308.400
Caleb Durbin 3B·0-3300001016.071.133.071
Marcelo Mayer 2B·0-4400000213.208.259.458
Carlos Narvaez C·1-3311001013.333.368.333

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Ranger Suarez SP·4.064422075-488.6475
Greg Weissert RP1.022203118-129.6418
Tyler Uberstine RP2.231112145-343.3845
Danny Coulombe RP0.10000002-23.382
Zack Kelly RP1.011100017-94.5017

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 2nd InningDurbin walked.
  2. 9th InningSheets doubled to center.
  3. 6th InningYoshida singled to center.
  4. 4th InningCronenworth lined out to left.

Scoring Plays

  1. 8th InningMerrill homered to left center (384 feet).7–6
  2. 3rd InningAbreu tripled to right, Duran scored.0–3
  3. 9th InningTatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Sheets scored.8–6
  4. 3rd InningYoshida doubled to right, Abreu scored.0–4
  5. 7th InningYoshida doubled to second, Abreu scored and Contreras scored.6–6
  6. 5th InningMachado homered to left (365 feet), Campusano scored and Merrill scored.6–4
  7. 4th InningCastellanos singled to left, Machado scored and Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.3–4
  8. 4th InningMerrill singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.1–4
  9. 3rd InningDuran doubled to right, Anthony scored and Narváez scored.0–2

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