TB @ MIN
Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:10 PM CT⚾ Nick Martinez vs Simeon Woods RichardsonMLB.TVTwins.TVRays.TV
Result readTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 4 · Minnesota Twins 1
Final
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Tampa Bay Rays because Tampa Bay Rays owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Tampa Bay Rays has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 87%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 3.
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 87%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Rasmussen SP · #57
- Nick Martinez SP · #28
- Cole Sulser RP · #71
- Griffin Jax RP · #22
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
Injury Report
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
Tampa Bay Rays
Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreCaminero walked, Díaz scored, Simpson to second, Aranda to third.4–1
- ScoreCaminero homered to left (397 feet).1–1
- ScorePalacios homered to right (382 feet), Williamson scored.3–1
- ScoreWallner homered to right (409 feet).0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Tampa Bay Rays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .405 | .488 | .649 |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27 | .216 | .318 | .432 |
| Chandler Simpson LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .382 | .432 | .441 |
| Junior Caminero 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .257 | .381 | .371 |
| Cedric Mullins CF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .114 | .135 | .143 |
| Ben Williamson 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | .281 | .303 | .313 |
| Richie Palacios 2B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | .231 | .444 | .462 |
| Jonny DeLuca RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .278 | .316 | .500 |
| Jake Fraley RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .263 | .364 | .421 |
| Hunter Feduccia C· | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | .333 | .455 | .333 |
| Nick Fortes C | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .360 | .407 | .560 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez SP· | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 81-52 | 2.25 | 81 |
| Griffin Jax RP | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 30-16 | 11.25 | 30 |
| Bryan Baker RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14-8 | 0.00 | 14 |
| Kevin Kelly RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19-11 | 16.88 | 19 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kody Clemens 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .150 | .261 | .300 |
| Byron Buxton CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .133 | .182 | .233 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .194 | .231 | .222 |
| Matt Wallner RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .194 | .256 | .444 |
| Ryan Jeffers C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .208 | .321 | .250 |
| Trevor Larnach LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | .273 | .500 | .455 |
| Austin Martin LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .235 | .435 | .235 |
| Josh Bell 1B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .222 | .371 | .556 |
| Tristan Gray 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .286 | .353 | .571 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .167 | .250 | .167 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson SP· | 6.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 88-51 | 2.31 | 88 |
| Kody Funderburk RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3-3 | 4.15 | 3 |
| Cole Sands RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21-13 | 2.45 | 21 |
| Justin Topa RP | 0.1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15-7 | 5.79 | 15 |
| Taylor Rogers RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18-7 | 4.50 | 18 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 10th InningLarnach flied out to center.
- 10th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
- 5th InningMartin grounded out to third, Larnach to second.
Scoring Plays
- 10th InningCaminero walked, Díaz scored, Simpson to second, Aranda to third.4–1
- 4th InningCaminero homered to left (397 feet).1–1
- 10th InningPalacios homered to right (382 feet), Williamson scored.3–1
- 2nd InningWallner homered to right (409 feet).0–1