CHC @ TB
Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameIndoor4:10 PM ET⚾ Jameson Taillon vs Shane McClanahanMLB.TVRays.TV
Result readTampa Bay Rays
Chicago Cubs 4 · Tampa Bay Rays 6
Final
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Venue EdgeTropicana FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Tampa Bay Rays: Chicago Cubs’s scoring margin profile and Tampa Bay Rays’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 54%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 2.
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 54%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Rasmussen SP · #57
- Nick Martinez SP · #28
- Cole Sulser RP · #71
- Griffin Jax RP · #22
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Rays
Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
Chicago Cubs
Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreMullins homered to right (367 feet), Simpson scored.2–2
- 💣 Home RunDíaz reached on infield single to shortstop, Walls scored on throwing error by shortstop Swanson, Díaz to second.2–3
- ScoreAranda homered to right center (403 feet), Williamson scored.3–6
- ScoreShaw homered to left (366 feet).4–6
- ScoreHoerner singled to left, Busch and Swanson scored, Amaya to second.2–0
- ScoreBusch hit sacrifice fly to center, Happ scored.3–4
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 6 | 9 | 0 |
Chicago Cubs
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .273 | .419 | .424 |
| Alex Bregman 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .150 | .244 | .300 |
| Ian Happ LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .200 | .289 | .550 |
| Carson Kelly C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .250 | .344 | .286 |
| Michael Busch 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .176 | .310 | .235 |
| Dansby Swanson SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | .125 | .256 | .219 |
| Matt Shaw RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .222 | .241 | .444 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .211 | .250 | .237 |
| Miguel Amaya C· | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .417 | .533 | .750 |
| Michael Conforto RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .111 | .273 | .111 |
| Dylan Carlson LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon SP· | 6.0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 83-53 | 2.53 | 83 |
| Phil Maton RP | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19-10 | 10.80 | 19 |
| Riley Martin RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10-8 | 0.00 | 10 |
Tampa Bay Rays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .415 | .489 | .634 |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .220 | .313 | .488 |
| Jake Fraley RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .217 | .308 | .348 |
| Junior Caminero 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .256 | .370 | .436 |
| Chandler Simpson LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .395 | .439 | .447 |
| Nick Fortes C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .345 | .387 | .552 |
| Cedric Mullins CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .132 | .150 | .237 |
| Ben Williamson 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | .265 | .306 | .294 |
| Taylor Walls SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan SP· | 4.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 69-35 | 4.15 | 69 |
| Kevin Kelly RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-10 | 12.27 | 14 |
| Ian Seymour RP | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21-13 | 13.50 | 21 |
| Hunter Bigge RP | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20-12 | 0.00 | 20 |
| Bryan Baker RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14-10 | 2.25 | 14 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 5th InningConforto lined out to second.
- 5th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
- 2nd InningMullins homered to right (367 feet), Simpson scored.2–2
- 1st InningAranda struck out looking, Díaz stole second.
- 9th InningSwanson struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 2nd InningMullins homered to right (367 feet), Simpson scored.2–2
- 2nd InningDíaz reached on infield single to shortstop, Walls scored on throwing error by shortstop Swanson, Díaz to second.2–3
- 7th InningAranda homered to right center (403 feet), Williamson scored.3–6
- 9th InningShaw homered to left (366 feet).4–6
- 2nd InningHoerner singled to left, Busch and Swanson scored, Amaya to second.2–0
- 6th InningBusch hit sacrifice fly to center, Happ scored.3–4
- 3rd InningCaminero homered to left (401 feet).2–4