SD @ PIT
PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET43°F · 3 mph wind · drizzle⚾ German Marquez vs Bubba ChandlerMLB.TVPadres.TV
Result readSan Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 5 · Pittsburgh Pirates 0
Final
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to San Diego Padres on the back of Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin work and Pittsburgh Pirates’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 74%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 5.
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 74%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleCronenworth doubled to right, Fermin scored.4–0
- ScoreMachado grounded out to first, Tatis Jr. scored, Merrill to third.3–0
- 🏃 DoubleLaureano doubled to right, Fermin scored.5–0
- ScoreMerrill hit a ground rule double, Laureano scored, Tatis Jr. to third.2–0
- 🏃 DoubleCastellanos doubled to left, Machado scored, Sheets to third.1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .250 | .289 | .472 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | .189 | .295 | .270 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .250 | .308 | .472 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .226 | .415 | .387 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .231 | .286 | .282 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | .231 | .259 | .346 |
| Nick Castellanos RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .250 | .286 | .350 |
| Freddy Fermin C· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .190 | .261 | .286 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .171 | .256 | .200 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| German Marquez SP· | 5.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 92-56 | 4.50 | 92 |
| Ron Marinaccio RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 30-15 | 2.57 | 30 |
| David Morgan RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 39-21 | 0.00 | 39 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .308 | .357 | .615 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .273 | .400 | .606 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .256 | .348 | .436 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | .364 | .463 | .697 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .065 | .171 | .065 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .303 | .361 | .364 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .231 | .344 | .269 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .077 | .250 | .154 |
| Henry Davis C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .174 | .296 | .261 |
| Jake Mangum LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .208 | .240 | .250 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler SP· | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 83-48 | 3.12 | 83 |
| Yohan Ramirez RP | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27-19 | 2.70 | 27 |
| Isaac Mattson RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21-14 | 3.00 | 21 |
| Justin Lawrence RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13-11 | 5.79 | 13 |
| Gregory Soto RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18-8 | 1.42 | 18 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 3rd InningO'Hearn struck out looking.
- 3rd InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Looking
- 8th InningLowe walked.
- 3rd InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
- 5th InningDavis fouled out to left.
- 3rd InningReynolds to second on wild pitch by Márquez.
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningCronenworth doubled to right, Fermin scored.4–0
- 5th InningMachado grounded out to first, Tatis Jr. scored, Merrill to third.3–0
- 8th InningLaureano doubled to right, Fermin scored.5–0
- 5th InningMerrill hit a ground rule double, Laureano scored, Tatis Jr. to third.2–0
- 4th InningCastellanos doubled to left, Machado scored, Sheets to third.1–0