DET @ MIN
Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Tarik Skubal vs Taj BradleyMLB.TVTwins.TVTigers.TV
Result readMinnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers 2 · Minnesota Twins 4
Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Minnesota Twins on the back of Detroit Tigers’s margin work and Minnesota Twins’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 63%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 2.
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 63%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
Injury Report
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleJeffers doubled to right, Keaschall and Martin scored.0–3
- 🏃 DoubleMcGonigle doubled to right, Báez scored.2–4
- 🏃 DoubleBell doubled to left, Jeffers scored.0–4
- ScoreKeaschall singled to center, Buxton scored, Martin to second.0–1
- ScoreMcGonigle singled to left, Torkelson scored, Meadows to second.1–4
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt Keith 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .353 | .389 | .500 |
| Jahmai Jones RF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Kevin McGonigle SS· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .302 | .388 | .465 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .205 | .392 | .282 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 24 | .190 | .292 | .262 |
| Dillon Dingler C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | .207 | .343 | .448 |
| Zach McKinstry 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .273 | .333 | .455 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .206 | .357 | .265 |
| Parker Meadows CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .267 | .333 | .367 |
| Kerry Carpenter RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .188 | .289 | .375 |
| Matt Vierling CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .188 | .176 | .438 |
| Javier Baez SS· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .261 | .308 | .304 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal SP· | 4.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 95-65 | 2.55 | 95 |
| Tyler Holton RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16-10 | 0.00 | 16 |
| Connor Seabold RP | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 35-24 | 0.00 | 35 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .158 | .233 | .263 |
| Austin Martin LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .200 | .429 | .200 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .209 | .271 | .302 |
| Ryan Jeffers C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .214 | .313 | .286 |
| Victor Caratini C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .300 | .353 | .333 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .265 | .395 | .559 |
| Matt Wallner RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .222 | .271 | .444 |
| Royce Lewis 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .172 | .351 | .448 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .192 | .250 | .192 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley SP· | 6.1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 104-68 | 1.08 | 104 |
| Taylor Rogers RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12-9 | 3.60 | 12 |
| Cole Sands RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12-2 | 2.25 | 12 |
| Eric Orze RP | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19-13 | 1.93 | 19 |
| Justin Topa RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14-7 | 5.06 | 14 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 4th InningDingler grounded out to shortstop.
- 4th InningJeffers safe at first on throwing error by third baseman McGonigle.
- 4th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningJeffers doubled to right, Keaschall and Martin scored.0–3
- 9th InningMcGonigle doubled to right, Báez scored.2–4
- 5th InningBell doubled to left, Jeffers scored.0–4
- 5th InningKeaschall singled to center, Buxton scored, Martin to second.0–1
- 7th InningMcGonigle singled to left, Torkelson scored, Meadows to second.1–4