CHC @ TB
Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Colin Rea vs Joe BoyleMLB.TVRays.TV
Result readChicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 6 · Tampa Bay Rays 2
Final
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Venue EdgeTropicana FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Chicago Cubs because Chicago Cubs owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Tampa Bay Rays has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 52%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 4.
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 52%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Rasmussen SP · #57
- Nick Martinez SP · #28
- Cole Sulser RP · #71
- Griffin Jax RP · #22
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Rays
Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
Chicago Cubs
Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreFraley singled to left, Aranda scored, Fraley to second.6–2
- ScoreHoerner homered to left (369 feet).1–0
- 💣 Home RunHoerner scored on error, Busch safe at first on throwing error by catcher Feduccia, Busch safe at second on error.6–1
- 🏃 DoubleHoerner doubled to right, Conforto scored.5–1
- ScoreAranda hit sacrifice fly to left, DeLuca scored.1–1
- 💣 Home RunConforto doubled to right, Kelly scored, Swanson scored on throwing error by right fielder Fraley and Ballesteros scored, Conforto safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Aranda.4–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
Chicago Cubs
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner 2B· | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .333 | .453 | .548 |
| Michael Busch 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .140 | .255 | .186 |
| Alex Bregman 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 23 | .188 | .278 | .333 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .234 | .265 | .319 |
| Carson Kelly C· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .281 | .361 | .344 |
| Moises Ballesteros C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .222 | .290 | .333 |
| Dansby Swanson SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .150 | .271 | .250 |
| Michael Conforto RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .250 | .400 | .313 |
| Matt Shaw RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .257 | .289 | .457 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea SP· | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 79-51 | 3.18 | 79 |
| Hoby Milner RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-6 | 2.45 | 10 |
| Ben Brown RP | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 31-21 | 4.22 | 31 |
| Hunter Harvey RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16-13 | 6.75 | 16 |
Tampa Bay Rays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .362 | .455 | .553 |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .271 | .339 | .521 |
| Jake Fraley RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | .214 | .313 | .321 |
| Junior Caminero 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .217 | .333 | .370 |
| Chandler Simpson LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .391 | .429 | .435 |
| Ben Williamson 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | .237 | .275 | .263 |
| Hunter Feduccia C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .250 | .400 | .250 |
| Jonny DeLuca RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .286 | .318 | .476 |
| Taylor Walls SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .100 | .100 | .200 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Boyle SP· | 4.1 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 84-46 | 5.17 | 84 |
| Jesse Scholtens RP | 4.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 61-40 | 0.00 | 61 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningWilliamson grounded out to pitcher.
- 9th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
- 9th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
- 9th InningPitch 5 : Ball 2
- 6th InningFraley struck out looking.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningFraley singled to left, Aranda scored, Fraley to second.6–2
- 1st InningHoerner homered to left (369 feet).1–0
- 5th InningHoerner scored on error, Busch safe at first on throwing error by catcher Feduccia, Busch safe at second on error.6–1
- 5th InningHoerner doubled to right, Conforto scored.5–1
- 3rd InningAranda hit sacrifice fly to left, DeLuca scored.1–1
- 5th InningConforto doubled to right, Kelly scored, Swanson scored on throwing error by right fielder Fraley and Ballesteros scored, Conforto safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Aranda.4–1