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In The Rafters

DET @ MIN

Joshua Silvia
12–19 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Framber Valdez vs Bailey OberMLB.TVTwins.TVTigers.TV
Result readMinnesota Twins

Detroit Tigers 6 · Minnesota Twins 8

Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Minnesota Twins is the model’s call — Detroit Tigers on the margin numbers, Minnesota Twins on the form numbers. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 63%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Detroit Tigers

Minnesota Twins

Injury Report

Minnesota Twins

Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL

Detroit Tigers

Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Detroit Tigers
RG Riley Greene LF · #31 MV Matt Vierling CF · #8 KC K. Carpenter RF · #30 CK Colt Keith 3B · #33 KM K. McGonigle SS · #7 GT Gleyber Torres 2B · #25 ST S. Torkelson 1B · #20 FV Framber Valdez P · #59 DD Dillon Dingler C · #13
Minnesota Twins
AM Austin Martin LF · #16 BB Byron Buxton CF · #25 MW Matt Wallner RF · #38 RL Royce Lewis 3B · #23 BL Brooks Lee SS · #22 LK Luke Keaschall 2B · #15 JB Josh Bell 1B · #56 BO Bailey Ober P · #17 RJ Ryan Jeffers C · #27

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreJeffers grounded out to third, Martin scored.1st Inning0–2
  2. ScoreBuxton scored, Martin picked off and caught stealing second.6th Inning2–8
  3. ScoreBuxton scored, Martin picked off and caught stealing second.6th Inning2–8
  4. ScoreGreene reached on infield single to second, Torres scored.7th Inning5–8
  5. ScoreLewis singled to center, Bell scored and Wallner scored.1st Inning0–6
  6. 🏃 DoubleWallner doubled to right, Caratini scored, Bell to third.1st Inning0–4

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Detroit Tigers0000024006120
Minnesota Twins60010100—8111

Detroit Tigers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Colt Keith 3B·1-3311000112.351.385.514
Spencer Torkelson 1B0-110000006.200.364.257
Kevin McGonigle SS·1-5511000018.292.370.438
Gleyber Torres 2B·2-5522200120.227.393.318
Kerry Carpenter RF·1-2201101011.206.317.382
Jahmai Jones RF0-220000016.000.000.000
Riley Greene LF·1-4411101128.196.302.261
Dillon Dingler C·3-4403100018.273.400.485
Matt Vierling CF·0-220000006.167.158.389
Parker Meadows CF1-3301000113.273.333.364
Zach McKinstry 2B·0-5500000126.222.276.370
Javier Baez SS·2-4412000021.296.333.370

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Framber Valdez SP·5.0108822087-564.7687
Enmanuel De Jesus RP1.010021021-106.3521
Kyle Finnegan RP1.000020016-50.0016
Will Vest RP1.000001015-85.4015

Minnesota Twins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Byron Buxton CF·3-4433001013.214.292.333
Austin Martin LF·1-3311000012.217.438.217
Trevor Larnach LF0-110000005.313.476.438
James Outman CF0-000000000.000.077.000
Luke Keaschall 2B·1-5511100016.208.264.292
Ryan Jeffers C·1-3301102125.226.351.290
Victor Caratini C·1-4411001019.294.359.324
Josh Bell 1B·1-3311101116.270.404.541
Matt Wallner RF·1-4411100214.224.269.449
Royce Lewis 3B·2-3302201012.219.390.469
Brooks Lee SS·0-440000007.167.219.167

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Bailey Ober SP·5.252212099-645.2799
Justin Topa RP0.110000010-54.7610
Anthony Banda RP0.244401021-137.5021
Cole Sands RP0.11000109-72.089
Cody Laweryson RP1.110002026-154.2626
Kody Funderburk RP0.200010020-83.1820

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningMcKinstry struck out looking.
  2. 8th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

Scoring Plays

  1. 1st InningJeffers grounded out to third, Martin scored.0–2
  2. 6th InningBuxton scored, Martin picked off and caught stealing second.2–8
  3. 6th InningBuxton scored, Martin picked off and caught stealing second.2–8
  4. 7th InningGreene reached on infield single to second, Torres scored.5–8
  5. 1st InningLewis singled to center, Bell scored and Wallner scored.0–6
  6. 1st InningWallner doubled to right, Caratini scored, Bell to third.0–4
  7. 1st InningBuxton scored on Valdez wild pitch, Keaschall to second on wild pitch by Valdez, Martin to third on wild pitch by Valdez.0–1
  8. 7th InningGreene scored on Sands wild pitch, Dingler to second on wild pitch by Sands.6–8
  9. 7th InningTorres doubled to right, McGonigle scored and Báez scored.4–8
  10. 6th InningDingler singled to center, Torres scored, Carpenter to second.2–7
  11. 6th InningCarpenter singled to right, Keith scored, Torres to third.1–7
  12. 1st InningBell singled to left, Keaschall scored, Caratini to second.0–3
  13. 1st InningBuxton scored on Valdez wild pitch, Keaschall to second on wild pitch by Valdez, Martin to third on wild pitch by Valdez.0–1
  14. 7th InningGreene scored on Sands wild pitch, Dingler to second on wild pitch by Sands.6–8
  15. 4th InningKeaschall singled to center, Buxton scored.0–7

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