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InTheRafters.com

SD @ PIT

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor12:35 PM ET⚾ Michael King vs Mitch KellerMLB.TVPadres.TV
Result readSan Diego Padres

San Diego Padres 8 · Pittsburgh Pirates 2

Final
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

San Diego Padres gets the model’s nod thanks to Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin advantage, with Pittsburgh Pirates’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 74%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 6.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

San Diego Padres

Pittsburgh Pirates

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day

San Diego Padres

Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

San Diego Padres
RL Ramon Laureano LF · #5 JM J. Merrill CF · #3 FT F. Tatis Jr. RF · #23 MM Manny Machado 3B · #13 XB X. Bogaerts SS · #2 JC J. Cronenworth 2B · #9 GS Gavin Sheets 1B · #30 YD Yu Darvish P · #11 FF Freddy Fermin C · #54
Pittsburgh Pirates
BR Bryan Reynolds LF · #10 OC Oneil Cruz CF · #15 RO Ryan O'Hearn RF · #29 NG Nick Gonzales 3B · #3 KG Konnor Griffin SS · #6 BL Brandon Lowe 2B · #5 SH S. Horwitz 1B · #2 MK Mitch Keller P · #23 HD Henry Davis C · #32

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 🏃 DoubleCampusano doubled to left, Johnson scored.9th Inning5–2
  2. ScoreBart singled to center, Gonzales scored.7th Inning4–2
  3. ScoreGriffin hit sacrifice fly to left, Yorke scored.7th Inning4–1
  4. ScoreCronenworth homered to right center (399 feet), Castellanos scored.7th Inning4–0
  5. ScoreTatis Jr. stole home, Merrill stole second.9th Inning8–2
  6. ScoreTatis Jr. stole home, Merrill stole second.9th Inning8–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
San Diego Padres0000004048100
Pittsburgh Pirates000000200263

San Diego Padres

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ramon Laureano LF·2-5512000221.244.277.422
Fernando Tatis Jr. RF·1-5511100214.196.283.261
Jackson Merrill CF·0-5500000120.200.250.378
Gavin Sheets 1B·1-5501000114.206.229.324
Ty France 1B0-000000000.125.125.125
Xander Bogaerts SS·1-5511000112.229.275.333
Miguel Andujar 3B·2-4412000014.310.375.448
Nick Castellanos RF·1-3311201013.261.320.391
Bryce Johnson RF0-001000000.125.222.250
Luis Campusano C·1-4411100113.214.214.357
Jake Cronenworth 2B·1-4411210115.171.261.268

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Michael King SP·6.042234095-573.2495
Kyle Hart RP1.010010021-124.7021
Jeremiah Estrada RP1.010000012-96.3512
Mason Miller RP1.000002010-90.0010

Pittsburgh Pirates

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Oneil Cruz CF·1-4401000113.292.333.583
Brandon Lowe 2B·0-4400000114.220.333.488
Bryan Reynolds LF·0-2200002017.244.352.400
Ryan O'Hearn RF·0-4400000019.350.449.625
Nick Yorke 3B·3-3313001012.381.500.476
Nick Gonzales 3B·1-441100007.293.341.366
Spencer Horwitz 1B·0-220000007.233.351.267
Konnor Griffin SS0-110010019.167.273.222
Joey Bart C·1-4401100222.167.231.167
Jake Mangum LF·0-3300001118.214.267.250

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Mitch Keller SP·6.030014075-491.0075
Justin Lawrence RP1.034302125-189.5325
Jose Urquidy RP2.044103036-311.8036

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningGriffin struck out swinging.
  2. 5th InningMangum struck out swinging.
  3. 5th InningCastellanos walked.
  4. 2nd InningBart struck out swinging.

Scoring Plays

  1. 9th InningCampusano doubled to left, Johnson scored.5–2
  2. 7th InningBart singled to center, Gonzales scored.4–2
  3. 7th InningGriffin hit sacrifice fly to left, Yorke scored.4–1
  4. 7th InningCronenworth homered to right center (399 feet), Castellanos scored.4–0
  5. 9th InningTatis Jr. stole home, Merrill stole second.8–2
  6. 9th InningTatis Jr. stole home, Merrill stole second.8–2
  7. 9th InningMerrill grounded into fielder's choice to first, Laureano scored on error, Tatis Jr. safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Yorke, Tatis Jr. safe at third on error.7–2
  8. 9th InningTatis Jr. singled to left, Campusano scored, Laureano to second.6–2
  9. 7th InningCastellanos doubled to left, Andujar scored and Bogaerts scored.2–0

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