COL @ SD
Petco Park · San Diego, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM PT62°F · 2 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Tomoyuki Sugano vs Walker BuehlerMLB.TVPadres.TVRockies.TV
Result readSan Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies 2 · San Diego Padres 5
Final
Colorado Rockies16-25-2-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 25%
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgePetco ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
San Diego Padres is the model’s call — San Diego Padres on the margin numbers, San Diego Padres on the form numbers. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 75%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 3.
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 75%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Colorado Rockies
- Michael Lorenzen SP · #24
- Tomoyuki Sugano SP · #11
- Jimmy Herget RP · #44
- Brennan Bernardino RP · #83
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
Colorado Rockies
Jimmy HergetBereavementJared ThomasDay-To-DayMcCade Brown60-Day-ILJeff Criswell60-Day-ILRyan Feltner15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreGoodman singled to left, Doyle scored.1–2
- ScoreSheets homered to right center (416 feet).0–1
- ScoreSheets homered to right center (434 feet), Merrill scored and Machado scored.2–5
- ScoreBeck singled to right, Goodman scored, Freeman to third.2–2
- ScoreCampusano homered to left (396 feet).0–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Colorado Rockies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edouard Julien 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .310 | .355 | .345 |
| Hunter Goodman C | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .255 | .340 | .404 |
| Tyler Freeman RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .357 | .438 | .357 |
| Mickey Moniak LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .231 | .250 | .577 |
| Jordan Beck LF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | .115 | .207 | .154 |
| Ezequiel Tovar SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .273 | .286 | .436 |
| TJ Rumfield 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .319 | .377 | .511 |
| Willi Castro 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .224 | .283 | .347 |
| Brenton Doyle CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .182 | .250 | .273 |
| Brett Sullivan C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .278 | .316 | .333 |
| Kyle Karros 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .205 | .311 | .231 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomoyuki Sugano SP· | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 81-52 | 2.16 | 81 |
| Antonio Senzatela RP | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 31-16 | 0.00 | 31 |
| Jaden Hill RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2-1 | 1.42 | 2 |
| Juan Mejia RP | 0.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18-9 | 6.14 | 18 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .245 | .288 | .408 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .189 | .274 | .245 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .189 | .259 | .340 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .195 | .382 | .317 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .224 | .262 | .362 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .256 | .273 | .512 |
| Miguel Andujar 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .273 | .333 | .394 |
| Luis Campusano C· | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | .353 | .389 | .765 |
| Bryce Johnson RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .222 | .250 |
| Freddy Fermin C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .185 | .241 | .259 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .163 | .255 | .245 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler SP· | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 68-50 | 4.97 | 68 |
| Kyle Hart RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13-7 | 4.15 | 13 |
| Adrian Morejon RP | 0.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21-15 | 10.80 | 21 |
| Jason Adam RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5-4 | 0.00 | 5 |
| Mason Miller RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13-10 | 0.00 | 13 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningCronenworth struck out swinging, Johnson caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.
- 8th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 9th InningMachado walked, Merrill to second.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
- 8th InningTovar grounded out to third.
- 7th InningBeck walked.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningGoodman singled to left, Doyle scored.1–2
- 5th InningSheets homered to right center (416 feet).0–1
- 9th InningSheets homered to right center (434 feet), Merrill scored and Machado scored.2–5
- 8th InningBeck singled to right, Goodman scored, Freeman to third.2–2
- 5th InningCampusano homered to left (396 feet).0–2