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In The Rafters

PIT @ CHC

Joshua Silvia
11–17 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:20 PM CT46°F · 4 mph wind · partly cloudy⚾ Carmen Mlodzinski vs Shota ImanagaMLB.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates 2 · Chicago Cubs 0

Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Pittsburgh Pirates: Chicago Cubs’s scoring margin profile and Chicago Cubs’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 62%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Pittsburgh Pirates
BR Bryan Reynolds LF · #10 OC Oneil Cruz CF · #15 RO Ryan O'Hearn RF · #29 NG Nick Gonzales 3B · #3 KG Konnor Griffin SS · #6 BL Brandon Lowe 2B · #5 SH S. Horwitz 1B · #2 MK Mitch Keller P · #23 HD Henry Davis C · #32
Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreReynolds homered to left (385 feet), O'Hearn scored.7th Inning2–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Pittsburgh Pirates000000200230
Chicago Cubs000000000060

Pittsburgh Pirates

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nick Yorke 3B·0-4400000116.320.438.400
Ryan O'Hearn RF·1-4411000015.341.434.591
Bryan Reynolds LF·1-4411210118.245.345.449
Jake Mangum LF0-000000000.214.267.250
Marcell Ozuna DH·0-4400000220.057.154.057
Nick Gonzales 3B·0-3300000118.273.319.341
Oneil Cruz CF·1-2201001119.300.352.580
Konnor Griffin SS·0-3300000114.143.240.190
Joey Bart C·0-2200000217.143.250.143
Billy Cook RF·0-3300000214.000.000.000

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Carmen Mlodzinski SP·5.160032081-482.5181
Mason Montgomery RP0.200012017-98.4417
Isaac Mattson RP1.000010012-52.3512
Gregory Soto RP1.000020024-131.0824
Dennis Santana RP1.000002013-90.0013

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·1-4401001017.326.448.522
Michael Busch 1B·0-5500000219.125.232.167
Alex Bregman 3B·1-4401000012.192.276.327
Ian Happ LF·2-3302001014.233.327.558
Seiya Suzuki RF·1-3301001113.333.500.333
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·0-4400000115.216.245.294
Carson Kelly C·1-1101003022.303.425.364
Scott Kingery 3B0-000000000.000.000.000
Miguel Amaya C0-000000000.294.400.529
Moises Ballesteros C·0-220000008.207.273.310
Matt Shaw RF0-220000018.243.275.432
Dansby Swanson SS·0-3300001119.140.269.233

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Shota Imanaga SP·6.0000190100-682.81100
Caleb Thielbar RP0.232200121-154.1521
Ethan Roberts RP1.100001017-100.0017
Riley Martin RP1.000001013-80.0013

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 7th InningGriffin lined out to shortstop.
  2. 4th InningReynolds struck out swinging.
  3. 2nd InningCruz walked.
  4. 9th InningO'Hearn flied out to left.

Scoring Plays

  1. 7th InningReynolds homered to left (385 feet), O'Hearn scored.2–0

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