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In The Rafters

BOS @ MIN

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Garrett Crochet vs Bailey OberMLB.TVTwins.TV
Result readMinnesota Twins

Boston Red Sox 6 · Minnesota Twins 13

Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Minnesota Twins: Minnesota Twins’s scoring margin profile and Boston Red Sox’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 68%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 7.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Boston Red Sox

Minnesota Twins

Injury Report

Minnesota Twins

Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Boston Red Sox
JD Jarren Duran LF · #16 CR C. Rafaela CF · #3 WA Wilyer Abreu RF · #52 CD Caleb Durbin 3B · #5 TS Trevor Story SS · #10 MM Marcelo Mayer 2B · #11 WC W. Contreras 1B · #40 BB Brayan Bello P · #66 CN Carlos Narvaez C · #75
Minnesota Twins
AM Austin Martin LF · #16 BB Byron Buxton CF · #25 MW Matt Wallner RF · #38 RL Royce Lewis 3B · #23 BL Brooks Lee SS · #22 LK Luke Keaschall 2B · #15 JB Josh Bell 1B · #56 BO Bailey Ober P · #17 RJ Ryan Jeffers C · #27

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreJeffers singled to left, Keaschall scored.1st Inning0–2
  2. ScoreDuran homered to right center (424 feet), Durbin scored.3rd Inning3–11
  3. 🏃 DoubleKeaschall doubled to left, Martin scored.1st Inning0–1
  4. ScoreAbreu singled to center, Durbin scored, Monasterio to third.7th Inning6–13
  5. ScoreBuxton homered to center (420 feet).5th Inning3–12
  6. ScoreMonasterio singled to left, Anthony scored, Durbin to second.7th Inning5–13

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Boston Red Sox0030012006101
Minnesota Twins47002000—13110

Boston Red Sox

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Roman Anthony LF·1-2221002024.211.328.333
Caleb Durbin 3B·2-5522100114.135.224.173
Jarren Duran LF·1-5511210112.196.293.314
Willson Contreras 1B·1-3311000214.304.443.500
Andruw Monasterio SS1-2201100110.167.333.250
Wilyer Abreu RF·2-3302101123.355.403.597
Trevor Story SS·1-330110017.188.194.275
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B0-110000001.083.154.083
Marcelo Mayer 2B·0-3300001016.186.265.326
Carlos Narvaez C·0-4400000314.216.237.216
Ceddanne Rafaela CF·1-4401000016.298.365.383

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Garrett Crochet SP·1.29111030255-307.5855
Jovani Moran RP2.100022035-191.7435
Ryan Watson RP2.022202235-194.5035
Tyler Samaniego RP2.000000017-110.0017

Minnesota Twins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Byron Buxton CF·2-5522110117.200.269.333
James Outman CF0-000000000.000.053.000
Austin Martin LF·1-4421001121.294.489.353
Luke Keaschall 2B·1-4421101120.215.278.292
Ryan Jeffers C·3-4433311022.317.440.512
Josh Bell 1B·1-5511200017.268.382.518
Victor Caratini C·1-2221312013.271.373.354
Matt Wallner RF·0-3300000113.210.279.387
Brooks Lee SS·1-4401100010.239.286.391
Ryan Kreidler 3B·1-441111009.125.125.500

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Bailey Ober SP·6.074417195-685.4995
Eric Orze RP1.032210023-144.0523
Garrett Acton RP2.000023033-202.2533

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 2nd InningAbreu walked.
  2. 2nd InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
  3. 1st InningJeffers singled to left, Keaschall scored.0–2
  4. 9th InningMonasterio struck out swinging.
  5. 9th InningAnthony walked.

Scoring Plays

  1. 1st InningJeffers singled to left, Keaschall scored.0–2
  2. 3rd InningDuran homered to right center (424 feet), Durbin scored.3–11
  3. 1st InningKeaschall doubled to left, Martin scored.0–1
  4. 7th InningAbreu singled to center, Durbin scored, Monasterio to third.6–13
  5. 5th InningBuxton homered to center (420 feet).3–12
  6. 7th InningMonasterio singled to left, Anthony scored, Durbin to second.5–13
  7. 5th InningJeffers homered to left (386 feet).3–13
  8. 2nd InningJeffers singled to left, Buxton scored, Keaschall to second, Martin to third.0–5
  9. 1st InningLee reached on infield single to shortstop, Jeffers scored. Wallner to second. Caratini scored on throwing error by shortstop Story.0–4
  10. 3rd InningDurbin doubled to left, Anthony scored.1–11
  11. 6th InningStory singled to center, Contreras scored, Abreu to second.4–13
  12. 2nd InningKreidler homered to left (438 feet).0–11
  13. 2nd InningCaratini homered to left (423 feet), Jeffers scored and Bell scored.0–10
  14. 2nd InningBell doubled to center, Martin scored and Keaschall scored, Jeffers to third.0–7

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