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In The Rafters

CHC @ PHI

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET78°F · 9 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Riley Martin vs Aaron NolaMLB.TV
Result readChicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs 10 · Philadelphia Phillies 4

Final
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeCitizens Bank ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Chicago Cubs because Chicago Cubs owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Chicago Cubs has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 79%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 6.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Chicago Cubs

Philadelphia Phillies

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25
Philadelphia Phillies
KS Kyle Schwarber LF · #12 JC J. Crawford CF · #2 AG Adolis Garcia RF · #53 AB Alec Bohm 3B · #28 TT Trea Turner SS · #7 BS Bryson Stott 2B · #5 BH Bryce Harper 1B · #3 CS C. Sanchez P · #61 RM Rafael Marchan C · #13

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreHoerner singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.3rd Inning1–3
  2. ScoreTurner singled to right, Sosa scored.8th Inning7–4
  3. ScoreKelly homered to center (422 feet), Suzuki scored and Amaya scored.9th Inning10–4
  4. 🏃 DoubleHapp doubled to left, Busch scored, Bregman to third.3rd Inning2–3
  5. ScoreSosa homered to center (442 feet), Marsh scored and Realmuto scored.2nd Inning0–3
  6. ScoreBregman singled to right, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored, Busch to second.6th Inning7–3

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Chicago Cubs00201400310150
Philadelphia Phillies030000010481

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·2-6612300121.303.397.455
Michael Busch 1B·2-4412002122.161.273.196
Alex Bregman 3B·3-5503300113.243.316.343
Ian Happ LF·2-5502100224.226.314.484
Seiya Suzuki RF·1-5511000321.211.348.211
Moises Ballesteros C·1-220100006.342.381.526
Matt Shaw RF0-110000004.200.245.356
Michael Conforto RF0-110000016.273.429.364
Miguel Amaya C0-001000105.280.438.440
Carson Kelly C·2-4422311016.333.455.467
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·2-4422000119.221.264.294
Dansby Swanson SS·0-3320002128.164.329.345

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Riley Martin RP·1.00000106-60.006
Colin Rea SP6.043305187-583.6387
Jacob Webb RP0.121100015-95.4015
Caleb Thielbar RP0.210012018-103.0018
Ryan Rolison RP1.010000011-70.0011

Philadelphia Phillies

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Trea Turner SS·1-4401100122.254.293.352
Kyle Schwarber LF·1-4401000213.237.400.593
Bryce Harper 1B·0-4400000114.258.361.484
Adolis Garcia RF·0-3300001120.213.290.361
Brandon Marsh LF·1-3311000011.305.333.475
Alec Bohm 3B0-110000014.153.227.220
Otto Kemp LF0-000000000.154.267.154
J.T. Realmuto C·2-4412000012.286.388.405
Bryson Stott 2B·1-4401000117.204.271.222
Edmundo Sosa 2B·2-4422310015.294.368.588
Justin Crawford CF·0-330000019.288.351.404

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Aaron Nola SP·5.083325087-594.0387
Tim Mayza RP0.114320026-123.0026
Brad Keller RP0.210002015-104.7015
Chase Shugart RP2.020013032-170.0032
Tanner Banks RP1.033311125-165.4025

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningSwanson struck out swinging.
  2. 8th InningGarcía walked.
  3. 7th InningConforto struck out swinging.
  4. 6th InningHapp struck out swinging.
  5. 3rd InningTurner struck out looking.

Scoring Plays

  1. 3rd InningHoerner singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–3
  2. 8th InningTurner singled to right, Sosa scored.7–4
  3. 9th InningKelly homered to center (422 feet), Suzuki scored and Amaya scored.10–4
  4. 3rd InningHapp doubled to left, Busch scored, Bregman to third.2–3
  5. 2nd InningSosa homered to center (442 feet), Marsh scored and Realmuto scored.0–3
  6. 6th InningBregman singled to right, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored, Busch to second.7–3
  7. 6th InningHoerner singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Kelly scored, Swanson to third.5–3
  8. 5th InningBregman singled to center, Swanson scored, Busch to second.3–3

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