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In The Rafters

BOS @ MIN

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor12:40 PM CT⚾ Connelly Early vs Simeon Woods RichardsonMLB.TVTwins.TV
Result readBoston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox 9 · Minnesota Twins 5

Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Boston Red Sox: Minnesota Twins’s scoring margin profile and Boston Red Sox’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 57%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 4.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Boston Red Sox

Minnesota Twins

Injury Report

Minnesota Twins

Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Boston Red Sox
JD Jarren Duran LF · #16 CR C. Rafaela CF · #3 WA Wilyer Abreu RF · #52 CD Caleb Durbin 3B · #5 TS Trevor Story SS · #10 MM Marcelo Mayer 2B · #11 WC W. Contreras 1B · #40 BB Brayan Bello P · #66 CN Carlos Narvaez C · #75
Minnesota Twins
AM Austin Martin LF · #16 BB Byron Buxton CF · #25 MW Matt Wallner RF · #38 RL Royce Lewis 3B · #23 BL Brooks Lee SS · #22 LK Luke Keaschall 2B · #15 JB Josh Bell 1B · #56 BO Bailey Ober P · #17 RJ Ryan Jeffers C · #27

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 🏃 DoubleStory doubled to right, Anthony scored and Rafaela scored.6th Inning9–1
  2. ScoreLee singled to left, Gray scored, Wallner to second.9th Inning9–2
  3. ScoreMartin homered to left (406 feet).1st Inning0–1
  4. 💣 Home RunMasataka Yoshida reaches on a fielder's choice. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Roman Anthony scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd. Masataka Yoshida to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Luke Keaschall. Fielding error by second baseman Luke Keaschall.3rd Inning2–1
  5. 🏃 DoubleMonasterio doubled to center, Duran scored.5th Inning6–1
  6. ScoreKreidler homered to left (385 feet), Wallner scored and Lee scored.9th Inning9–5

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Boston Red Sox0050220009130
Minnesota Twins100000004562

Boston Red Sox

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Roman Anthony LF·2-4422001112.246.355.369
Ceddanne Rafaela CF·1-3321001116.300.386.380
Masataka Yoshida LF·1-5511100221.286.459.393
Trevor Story SS·2-4412511019.208.222.338
Jarren Duran LF·0-5510000322.167.254.267
Andruw Monasterio SS·3-5513100023.263.364.368
Marcelo Mayer 2B·1-5501000011.188.259.313
Connor Wong C·1-330110008.368.400.526
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B·2-3312001023.222.300.222

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Connelly Early SP·6.021125185-522.2985
Danny Coulombe RP1.000000020-181.8020
Garrett Whitlock RP1.010012022-122.5722
Ryan Watson RP1.034410129-187.3629

Minnesota Twins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Byron Buxton CF·0-330000019.235.293.441
Kody Clemens 1B0-220000018.152.282.333
Austin Martin LF·2-4412111122.316.500.447
Luke Keaschall 2B·0-330000009.222.278.292
James Outman CF0-000000107.000.100.000
Ryan Jeffers C·0-4400000116.289.407.467
Josh Bell 1B·0-330000007.238.347.460
Tristan Gray 3B1-111100004.296.355.556
Victor Caratini C·1-3301000017.259.373.333
Matt Wallner RF·0-3310001116.191.276.353
Brooks Lee SS·1-4411100024.241.281.426
Ryan Kreidler 3B·1-3311311217.182.250.727

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Simeon Woods Richardson SP·5.0107633192-576.1092
Anthony Banda RP1.022201024-1710.3824
Justin Topa RP1.000010013-74.1513
Kody Funderburk RP1.000002014-102.3514
Eric Orze RP1.010001012-63.5212

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 7th InningLee grounded out to shortstop.
  2. 7th InningPitch 13 : Ball In Play
  3. 7th InningPitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul
  4. 7th InningPitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul
  5. 5th InningKiner-Falefa grounded out to shortstop.
  6. 8th InningOutman walked.
  7. 8th InningRafaela struck out swinging.
  8. 7th InningPitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningStory doubled to right, Anthony scored and Rafaela scored.9–1
  2. 9th InningLee singled to left, Gray scored, Wallner to second.9–2
  3. 1st InningMartin homered to left (406 feet).0–1
  4. 3rd InningMasataka Yoshida reaches on a fielder's choice. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Roman Anthony scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd. Masataka Yoshida to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Luke Keaschall. Fielding error by second baseman Luke Keaschall.2–1
  5. 5th InningMonasterio doubled to center, Duran scored.6–1
  6. 9th InningKreidler homered to left (385 feet), Wallner scored and Lee scored.9–5
  7. 5th InningWong hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Monasterio scored, Mayer to second.7–1
  8. 3rd InningStory homered to left center (411 feet), Rafaela scored and Yoshida scored.5–1

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