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In The Rafters

CHC @ PHI

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET78°F · 10 mph wind · overcast⚾ Shota Imanaga vs Jesus LuzardoESPN UnlmtdMLB.TV
Result readChicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs 11 · Philadelphia Phillies 2

Final
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeCitizens Bank ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Chicago Cubs gets the model’s nod thanks to Chicago Cubs’s margin advantage, with Chicago Cubs’s recent run providing the second tip. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 77%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 9.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Chicago Cubs

Philadelphia Phillies

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25
Philadelphia Phillies
KS Kyle Schwarber LF · #12 JC J. Crawford CF · #2 AG Adolis Garcia RF · #53 AB Alec Bohm 3B · #28 TT Trea Turner SS · #7 BS Bryson Stott 2B · #5 BH Bryce Harper 1B · #3 CS C. Sanchez P · #61 RM Rafael Marchan C · #13

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreSwanson homered to left (389 feet).7th Inning10–1
  2. ScoreBregman scored on Luzardo wild pitch.3rd Inning3–1
  3. ScoreBregman scored on Luzardo wild pitch.3rd Inning3–1
  4. ScoreHoerner singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored and Shaw scored.6th Inning9–1
  5. 💣 Home RunHoerner scored on throwing error by catcher Realmuto, Bregman stole third.3rd Inning2–1
  6. 💣 Home RunHoerner scored on throwing error by catcher Realmuto, Bregman stole third.3rd Inning2–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Chicago Cubs00302410111150
Philadelphia Phillies100000001251

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·3-5523510013.324.410.507
Alex Bregman 3B·1-4411001327.243.321.338
Seiya Suzuki RF·2-4412001121.261.393.261
Ian Happ LF·0-4400000217.212.307.455
Michael Busch 1B·0-5500000117.148.254.180
Dansby Swanson SS·3-5523210021.200.347.417
Miguel Amaya C·1-5511000015.267.405.400
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·2-4412000112.236.276.306
Matt Shaw RF·3-4433200020.245.283.449

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Shota Imanaga SP·6.0311111197-672.4597
Ben Brown RP2.000000017-123.0717
Luke Little RP1.021101119-149.0019

Philadelphia Phillies

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Trea Turner SS·1-2211111111.260.308.397
Justin Crawford CF0-110000001.283.345.396
Kyle Schwarber LF·0-4400000321.222.380.556
Bryce Harper 1B·1-4411110214.258.355.515
Adolis Garcia RF·2-4402000118.231.301.385
Edmundo Sosa 2B·1-4401000213.286.348.524
J.T. Realmuto C·0-2200000114.273.373.386
Rafael Marchan C0-220000008.048.091.190
Alec Bohm 3B·0-330000009.145.217.210
Brandon Marsh LF·0-3300000110.290.318.452
Otto Kemp LF·0-3300000114.125.222.125

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Jesus Luzardo SP·5.1129814198-647.9498
Kyle Backhus RP1.231103141-287.7141
Jose Alvarado RP1.000001011-610.5011
Dylan Moore CF1.001110013-65.4013

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 3rd InningSuzuki struck out swinging.
  2. 9th InningSuzuki walked.
  3. 3rd InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
  4. 9th InningPitch 5 : Ball 4
  5. 7th InningSwanson homered to left (389 feet).10–1
  6. 3rd InningBregman scored on Luzardo wild pitch.3–1
  7. 3rd InningShaw doubled to left.

Scoring Plays

  1. 7th InningSwanson homered to left (389 feet).10–1
  2. 3rd InningBregman scored on Luzardo wild pitch.3–1
  3. 3rd InningBregman scored on Luzardo wild pitch.3–1
  4. 6th InningHoerner singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored and Shaw scored.9–1
  5. 3rd InningHoerner scored on throwing error by catcher Realmuto, Bregman stole third.2–1
  6. 3rd InningHoerner scored on throwing error by catcher Realmuto, Bregman stole third.2–1
  7. 9th InningHarper homered to left center (406 feet).11–2
  8. 9th InningSwanson grounded out to shortstop, Suzuki scored, Happ to third.11–1
  9. 6th InningShaw doubled to right, Swanson scored and Amaya scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.7–1
  10. 3rd InningHoerner singled to center, Shaw scored.1–1
  11. 1st InningTurner homered to center (423 feet).0–1
  12. 5th InningHoerner homered to center (400 feet), Shaw scored.5–1

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