SEA @ SD
Petco Park · San Diego, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor5:40 PM PT60°F · 3 mph wind · clear⚾ Luis Castillo vs Walker BuehlerMLB.TVPadres.TVMariners.TV
Result readSan Diego Padres
Seattle Mariners 2 · San Diego Padres 5
Final
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgePetco ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
San Diego Padres is the model’s call — San Diego Padres on the margin numbers, San Diego Padres on the form numbers. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 50%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 3.
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 50%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Seattle Mariners
- Bryan Woo SP · #22
- George Kirby SP · #68
- Cal Raleigh C · #29
- Cole Young 2B · #2
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
Seattle Mariners
Patrick Wisdom10-Day-ILVictor Robles10-Day-ILBryce Miller15-Day-ILTeddy McGrawDay-To-DayJose Ferrerpaternity
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreTatis Jr. singled to center, Campusano scored and Cronenworth scored.0–4
- ScoreRodríguez singled to right, Donovan scored, Raleigh to second.2–4
- ScoreRaleigh singled to right, Young scored, Donovan to third.1–4
- ScoreLaureano grounded out to first, Andujar scored, Cronenworth to second, Campusano to third.0–2
- ScoreCampusano singled to left, Sheets scored, Andujar to second.0–1
- ScoreMachado reached on infield single to second, Tatis Jr. scored, Merrill to third.2–5
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Seattle Mariners
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Donovan 3B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | .315 | .449 | .537 |
| Cal Raleigh C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .169 | .253 | .286 |
| Julio Rodriguez CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .200 | .310 | .267 |
| Josh Naylor 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .118 | .193 | .197 |
| Randy Arozarena LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .300 | .424 | .400 |
| Luke Raley RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .328 | .379 | .623 |
| Connor Joe 1B | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| J.P. Crawford SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .171 | .383 | .200 |
| Dominic Canzone RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .195 | .277 | .439 |
| Mitch Garver C | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .143 | .294 | .143 |
| Cole Young 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .217 | .308 | .362 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo SP· | 5.1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 98-59 | 5.40 | 98 |
| Cole Wilcox RP | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21-15 | 4.91 | 21 |
| Cooper Criswell RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16-11 | 2.00 | 16 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .290 | .355 | .551 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .250 | .333 | .309 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .260 | .316 | .466 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .207 | .368 | .345 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .268 | .325 | .423 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .246 | .283 | .491 |
| Miguel Andujar 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .317 | .364 | .439 |
| Luis Campusano C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | .310 | .333 | .552 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .148 | .246 | .213 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 88-58 | 4.58 | 88 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez RP | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9-5 | 0.93 | 9 |
| Adrian Morejon RP | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17-12 | 7.71 | 17 |
| Jason Adam RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16-11 | 0.00 | 16 |
| Mason Miller RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14-9 | 0.00 | 14 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningGarver struck out swinging.
- 6th InningCampusano grounded out to third, Andujar to second.
Scoring Plays
- 2nd InningTatis Jr. singled to center, Campusano scored and Cronenworth scored.0–4
- 6th InningRodríguez singled to right, Donovan scored, Raleigh to second.2–4
- 6th InningRaleigh singled to right, Young scored, Donovan to third.1–4
- 2nd InningLaureano grounded out to first, Andujar scored, Cronenworth to second, Campusano to third.0–2
- 2nd InningCampusano singled to left, Sheets scored, Andujar to second.0–1
- 7th InningMachado reached on infield single to second, Tatis Jr. scored, Merrill to third.2–5