DET @ BOS
Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor4:10 PM ET45°F · 7 mph wind · overcast⚾ Tarik Skubal vs Brayan BelloMLB.TVTigers.TV
Result readDetroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers 4 · Boston Red Sox 1
Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Detroit Tigers because Detroit Tigers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Boston Red Sox has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 58%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 3.
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 58%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreCarpenter walked, McGonigle scored, Greene to second, Keith to third.1–0
- ScoreWong grounded into double play, second to first, Abreu scored, Durbin out at second, Rafaela to third.4–1
- ScoreRogers hit sacrifice fly to center, Pérez scored.3–0
- ScoreCarpenter homered to right (396 feet).2–0
- ScoreMcGonigle singled to right, Báez scored.4–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle SS· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .312 | .411 | .481 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | .237 | .352 | .303 |
| Colt Keith 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .317 | .348 | .429 |
| Dillon Dingler C | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .259 | .348 | .517 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | .247 | .353 | .370 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .190 | .338 | .238 |
| Kerry Carpenter RF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .218 | .318 | .455 |
| Wenceel Perez RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .045 | .125 | .182 |
| Javier Baez SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .278 | .310 | .426 |
| Jake Rogers C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .118 | .150 | .235 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal SP· | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 89-55 | 2.08 | 89 |
| Tyler Holton RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 28-17 | 0.96 | 28 |
| Kenley Jansen RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14-8 | 1.59 | 14 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .236 | .345 | .347 |
| Andruw Monasterio SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .261 | .346 | .348 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | .281 | .425 | .453 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | .188 | .202 | .306 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .311 | .354 | .514 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .281 | .369 | .368 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .133 | .235 | .183 |
| Connor Wong C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .333 | .385 | .500 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .190 | .261 | .190 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello SP· | 4.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 84-47 | 6.75 | 84 |
| Jovani Moran RP | 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 41-23 | 1.35 | 41 |
| Greg Weissert RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12-8 | 5.40 | 12 |
| Zack Kelly RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19-9 | 5.68 | 19 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningRafaela fouled out to first.
- 7th InningRafaela grounded out to shortstop.
- 1st InningCarpenter walked, McGonigle scored, Greene to second, Keith to third.1–0
- 9th InningPitch 6 : Ball In Play
- 9th InningRogers grounded out to second.
Scoring Plays
- 1st InningCarpenter walked, McGonigle scored, Greene to second, Keith to third.1–0
- 5th InningWong grounded into double play, second to first, Abreu scored, Durbin out at second, Rafaela to third.4–1
- 4th InningRogers hit sacrifice fly to center, Pérez scored.3–0
- 4th InningCarpenter homered to right (396 feet).2–0
- 4th InningMcGonigle singled to right, Báez scored.4–0