NYM @ CHC
Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:20 PM CT49°F · 15 mph wind · clear⚾ Freddy Peralta vs Jameson TaillonMLB.TV
Result readChicago Cubs
New York Mets 2 · Chicago Cubs 4
Final
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Chicago Cubs: Chicago Cubs’s scoring margin profile and Chicago Cubs’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 78%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 2.
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 78%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs
Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
New York Mets
Nate LavenderDay-To-DayNick BurdiDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreHapp homered to center (431 feet).1–1
- ScoreVientos homered to left center (434 feet).1–0
- ScoreKelly homered to left center (405 feet), Happ scored and Suzuki scored.1–4
- 💣 Home RunBichette scored, Alvarez safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Hoerner, Robert Jr. to second.2–4
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 | 5 | 1 |
New York Mets
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | .150 | .239 | .217 |
| Tyrone Taylor RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .231 | .259 | .385 |
| Bo Bichette 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .227 | .266 | .295 |
| Francisco Lindor SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .214 | .305 | .321 |
| Luis Robert Jr. CF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .258 | .372 | .379 |
| MJ Melendez LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | .400 | .500 | .600 |
| Francisco Alvarez C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .273 | .385 | .509 |
| Mark Vientos 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .240 | .264 | .400 |
| Brett Baty RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .190 | .197 | .270 |
| Tommy Pham LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Marcus Semien 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .216 | .280 | .297 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta SP· | 5.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 93-54 | 4.05 | 93 |
| Brooks Raley RP | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8-6 | 2.45 | 8 |
| Luke Weaver RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9-5 | 7.36 | 9 |
| Craig Kimbrel RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14-6 | 0.00 | 14 |
Chicago Cubs
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .325 | .402 | .525 |
| Michael Busch 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .174 | .275 | .203 |
| Alex Bregman 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .229 | .301 | .313 |
| Ian Happ LF· | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23 | .222 | .333 | .528 |
| Seiya Suzuki RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .267 | .405 | .300 |
| Moises Ballesteros C· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .381 | .413 | .619 |
| Carson Kelly C | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .340 | .450 | .520 |
| Miguel Amaya C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .273 | .400 | .394 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .218 | .265 | .282 |
| Dansby Swanson SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .200 | .341 | .400 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon SP· | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 100-61 | 3.97 | 100 |
| Ben Brown RP | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 38-22 | 2.70 | 38 |
| Caleb Thielbar RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14-11 | 2.57 | 14 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 1st InningBenge struck out swinging.
- 1st InningPitch 10 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 9th InningPham struck out swinging.
- 2nd InningCrow-Armstrong flied out to left.
Scoring Plays
- 2nd InningHapp homered to center (431 feet).1–1
- 2nd InningVientos homered to left center (434 feet).1–0
- 6th InningKelly homered to left center (405 feet), Happ scored and Suzuki scored.1–4
- 8th InningBichette scored, Alvarez safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Hoerner, Robert Jr. to second.2–4