TOR @ ARI
Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameIndoor5:10 PM PT⚾ Max Scherzer vs Zac GallenMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readArizona Diamondbacks
Toronto Blue Jays 2 · Arizona Diamondbacks 6
Final
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeChase FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Arizona Diamondbacks gets the model’s nod thanks to Toronto Blue Jays’s margin advantage, with Toronto Blue Jays’s recent run providing the second tip. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 72%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 4.
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 72%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Toronto Blue Jays
- Kevin Gausman SP · #34
- Dylan Cease SP · #84
- Braydon Fisher RP · #63
- Mason Fluharty RP · #68
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
Injury Report
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
Toronto Blue Jays
Javen ColemanDay-To-DayNathan Lukes10-Day-ILCJ StubbsDay-To-DayLazaro Estrada15-Day-ILFernando Perezdevelopmental list
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreOkamoto singled to left, Jiménez scored, Okamoto to second.2–2
- ScoreCarroll homered to left center (389 feet), Vargas scored, Thomas scored and Marte scored.2–6
- ScorePerdomo singled to center, Carroll scored.1–1
- 🏃 DoubleThomas doubled to right, Fernandez scored.1–2
- ScoreSánchez singled to center, Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | — | 6 | 8 | 0 |
Toronto Blue Jays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Lukes RF· | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .162 | .200 | .162 |
| Ernie Clement 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .296 | .305 | .383 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .315 | .419 | .411 |
| Jesus Sanchez LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .262 | .309 | .410 |
| Eloy Jimenez DH· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .333 | .385 | .333 |
| Davis Schneider LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .194 | .342 | .355 |
| Andres Gimenez SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .274 | .312 | .466 |
| Kazuma Okamoto 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .205 | .275 | .301 |
| Myles Straw RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .391 | .417 | .565 |
| Tyler Heineman C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .259 | .310 | .259 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer SP· | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 74-50 | 7.16 | 74 |
| Tyler Rogers RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9-6 | 0.84 | 9 |
| Jeff Hoffman RP | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 26-13 | 7.71 | 26 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .215 | .279 | .392 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .309 | .400 | .618 |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .229 | .325 | .314 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jorge Barrosa LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .229 | .275 | .417 |
| Adrian Del Castillo C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .267 | .267 | .400 |
| Jose Fernandez 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .304 | .304 | .446 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .214 | .222 | .357 |
| Ildemaro Vargas 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .377 | .400 | .623 |
| Alek Thomas CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .158 | .200 | .263 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen SP· | 5.2 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 88-63 | 3.51 | 88 |
| Ryan Thompson RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11-9 | 0.00 | 11 |
| Juan Morillo RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20-14 | 2.61 | 20 |
| Kevin Ginkel RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10-9 | 5.19 | 10 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 1st InningGurriel Jr. popped out to first.
- 7th InningGuerrero Jr. struck out swinging.
- 6th InningSánchez grounded out to first.
- 1st InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
- 8th InningDel Castillo struck out looking.
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningOkamoto singled to left, Jiménez scored, Okamoto to second.2–2
- 8th InningCarroll homered to left center (389 feet), Vargas scored, Thomas scored and Marte scored.2–6
- 1st InningPerdomo singled to center, Carroll scored.1–1
- 5th InningThomas doubled to right, Fernandez scored.1–2
- 1st InningSánchez singled to center, Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–0