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In The Rafters

CIN @ MIN

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:10 PM CT⚾ Brady Singer vs Bailey OberMLB.TVTwins.TVReds.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds 7 · Minnesota Twins 4

Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Cincinnati Reds is the model’s call — Minnesota Twins on the margin numbers, Minnesota Twins on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Minnesota Twins at 74%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 3.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Cincinnati Reds

Minnesota Twins

Injury Report

Minnesota Twins

Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37
Minnesota Twins
AM Austin Martin LF · #16 BB Byron Buxton CF · #25 MW Matt Wallner RF · #38 RL Royce Lewis 3B · #23 BL Brooks Lee SS · #22 LK Luke Keaschall 2B · #15 JB Josh Bell 1B · #56 BO Bailey Ober P · #17 RJ Ryan Jeffers C · #27

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreDe La Cruz scored on fielding error by left fielder Martin, Suárez safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Gray.10th Inning5–4
  2. 🏃 DoubleHinds doubled to left, Benson scored and Suárez scored.10th Inning7–4
  3. ScoreStewart grounded out to second, De La Cruz scored.4th Inning1–3
  4. ScoreCaratini singled to right, Larnach scored, Bell to second.3rd Inning0–3
  5. 🏃 DoubleMartin doubled to left, Outman scored.9th Inning4–4
  6. 🏃 DoubleFriedl doubled to center, Myers scored, Steer scored and Benson scored.9th Inning4–3

Scoring by Inning

Team12345678910RHE
Cincinnati Reds0001000033771
Minnesota Twins1020000010493

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
TJ Friedl CF·2-5502300117.154.267.167
P.J. Higgins C0-001000100.250.400.250
Matt McLain 2B·1-4401001117.187.337.227
Elly De La Cruz SS·1-5521000118.261.337.523
Sal Stewart 1B·0-5500100121.278.383.595
Eugenio Suarez 3B·0-4410001225.256.333.410
Spencer Steer LF·1-4411001330.206.257.382
Tyler Stephenson C·1-3301001118.184.305.306
Will Benson RF0-002000100.188.316.281
Rece Hinds RF·1-4401201219.118.158.176
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B·0-220000016.058.125.058
Nathaniel Lowe 1B0-000000000.231.333.346
Dane Myers CF0-2210001115.250.344.250

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Brady Singer SP·6.0533420104-655.32104
Connor Phillips RP1.000011016-102.0816
Kyle Nicolas RP1.020001019-125.0619
Emilio Pagan RP1.021100016-114.7616
Graham Ashcraft RP1.000011021-121.5021

Minnesota Twins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Byron Buxton CF·1-4421001124.235.300.407
Trevor Larnach LF·1-1111003025.265.468.412
Austin Martin LF1-110110002.311.484.444
Josh Bell 1B·1-5501100014.263.352.447
Victor Caratini C·2-4402200018.258.355.323
Kody Clemens 1B·1-5501000122.154.267.308
Luke Keaschall 2B·0-5500000016.209.258.279
Tristan Gray 3B·0-4400000213.250.300.444
Ryan Jeffers C0-000000106.278.391.463
Brooks Lee SS·0-4400001125.219.286.375
James Outman CF·2-4412000011.091.167.136

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Bailey Ober SP·6.13104100102-614.15102
Taylor Rogers RP0.20000008-43.388
Andrew Morris RP1.133322047-278.3147
Garrett Acton RP1.213012029-181.5929

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningStewart flied out to left.
  2. 8th InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
  3. 7th InningOutman fouled out to third.

Scoring Plays

  1. 10th InningDe La Cruz scored on fielding error by left fielder Martin, Suárez safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Gray.5–4
  2. 10th InningHinds doubled to left, Benson scored and Suárez scored.7–4
  3. 4th InningStewart grounded out to second, De La Cruz scored.1–3
  4. 3rd InningCaratini singled to right, Larnach scored, Bell to second.0–3
  5. 9th InningMartin doubled to left, Outman scored.4–4
  6. 9th InningFriedl doubled to center, Myers scored, Steer scored and Benson scored.4–3
  7. 3rd InningBell singled to right, Buxton scored, Larnach to third.0–2
  8. 1st InningCaratini hit sacrifice fly to center, Buxton scored.0–1

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