TOR @ ARI
Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameIndoor1:10 PM PT⚾ Kevin Gausman vs Ryne NelsonMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readToronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 10 · Arizona Diamondbacks 4
Final
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeChase FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto Blue Jays’s scoring margin profile and Toronto Blue Jays’s recent stretch. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 63%. Actual: Toronto Blue Jays by 6.
Pre-game pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 63%. Actual: Toronto Blue Jays by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Toronto Blue Jays
- Kevin Gausman SP · #34
- Dylan Cease SP · #84
- Braydon Fisher RP · #63
- Mason Fluharty RP · #68
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
Injury Report
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
Toronto Blue Jays
Javen ColemanDay-To-DayNathan Lukes10-Day-ILCJ StubbsDay-To-DayLazaro Estrada15-Day-ILFernando Perezdevelopmental list
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreBarrosa homered to left (351 feet), Marte scored.10–4
- ScoreMcCann singled to left, Del Castillo scored, Arenado to second.8–1
- ScoreGuerrero Jr. singled to right, Lukes scored and Clement scored.2–0
- 🏃 DoubleDel Castillo doubled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.10–2
- ScoreGiménez hit sacrifice fly to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.10–1
- 🏃 DoubleOkamoto doubled to left, Sánchez scored and Jiménez scored, Giménez to third.5–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 0 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Toronto Blue Jays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Lukes RF· | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .214 | .244 | .262 |
| Ernie Clement 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .302 | .310 | .407 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B· | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .333 | .429 | .436 |
| Jesus Sanchez LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .262 | .315 | .400 |
| Eloy Jimenez DH· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .313 | .389 | .313 |
| Andres Gimenez SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .273 | .305 | .455 |
| Kazuma Okamoto 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .221 | .294 | .364 |
| Myles Straw RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .346 | .393 | .500 |
| Brandon Valenzuela C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .185 | .214 | .296 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman SP· | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 86-54 | 2.54 | 86 |
| Mason Fluharty RP | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18-12 | 6.75 | 18 |
| Tommy Nance RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8-7 | 6.23 | 8 |
| Braydon Fisher RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11-8 | 0.77 | 11 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .217 | .278 | .386 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .300 | .390 | .600 |
| Jorge Barrosa LF | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .240 | .283 | .480 |
| Jose Fernandez 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .300 | .300 | .433 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .125 | .125 | .125 |
| Aramis Garcia C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Adrian Del Castillo C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | .303 | .324 | .455 |
| Ildemaro Vargas 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .368 | .390 | .596 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .205 | .213 | .342 |
| Tim Tawa LF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .139 | .238 | .194 |
| James McCann C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .250 | .273 | .344 |
| Alek Thomas CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .164 | .203 | .279 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson SP· | 0.1 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 30-19 | 6.97 | 30 |
| Andrew Hoffmann RP | 2.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 33-20 | 1.74 | 33 |
| Brandon Pfaadt RP | 6.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 84-55 | 4.70 | 84 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningStraw flied out to right.
- 4th InningSánchez walked, Guerrero Jr. to second.
- 9th InningJiménez grounded out to third.
- 7th InningBarrosa homered to left (351 feet), Marte scored.10–4
Scoring Plays
- 7th InningBarrosa homered to left (351 feet), Marte scored.10–4
- 2nd InningMcCann singled to left, Del Castillo scored, Arenado to second.8–1
- 1st InningGuerrero Jr. singled to right, Lukes scored and Clement scored.2–0
- 6th InningDel Castillo doubled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.10–2
- 4th InningGiménez hit sacrifice fly to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.10–1
- 1st InningOkamoto doubled to left, Sánchez scored and Jiménez scored, Giménez to third.5–0
- 3rd InningOkamoto homered to left center (406 feet).9–1
- 1st InningLukes doubled to left, Giménez scored, Straw scored and Okamoto scored.8–0
- 1st InningJiménez singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Sánchez to second.3–0