ATL @ WSH
Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:45 PM ET44°F · 6 mph wind · clear⚾ Bryce Elder vs Jake IrvinESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVBravesVisionNationals.TV
Result readAtlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 9 · Washington Nationals 4
Final
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Washington Nationals19-22-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeNationals ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Atlanta Braves on the back of Atlanta Braves’s margin work and Atlanta Braves’s last-ten momentum. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 92%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 5.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 92%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Washington Nationals
- Cade Cavalli SP · #24
- Jake Irvin SP · #27
- PJ Poulin RP · #50
- James Wood RF · #29
Injury Report
Washington Nationals
Cole Henry15-Day-ILClayton Beeter15-Day-ILJosiah Gray60-Day-ILTrevor Williams60-Day-ILTyler BaumDay-To-Day
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleBaldwin doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored and Yastrzemski scored.4–3
- ScoreOlson homered to center (419 feet), Baldwin scored.2–2
- ScoreOlson hit sacrifice fly to center, Yastrzemski scored, White to third.9–4
- ScoreAlbies singled to left, Baldwin scored, Riley to second.5–3
- ScoreYoung singled to right, Abrams scored and House scored, Lile to third.0–2
- ScoreHarris II singled to center, Riley scored, Albies to third.6–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 1 |
| Washington Nationals | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .244 | .359 | .360 |
| Eli White CF | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .182 | .208 | .227 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .313 | .377 | .510 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .278 | .365 | .589 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | .239 | .323 | .386 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .281 | .337 | .449 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .288 | .333 | .466 |
| Dominic Smith 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .345 | .362 | .600 |
| Jorge Mateo SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .318 | .375 | .500 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | .203 | .295 | .275 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder SP· | 6.2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 98-57 | 1.50 | 98 |
| Aaron Bummer RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3-2 | 4.76 | 3 |
| Tyler Kinley RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15-11 | 0.90 | 15 |
| Joel Payamps RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-8 | 4.15 | 10 |
Washington Nationals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .237 | .366 | .527 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .208 | .250 | .319 |
| Brady House 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .235 | .278 | .353 |
| CJ Abrams SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .312 | .432 | .584 |
| Daylen Lile LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .284 | .327 | .411 |
| Jacob Young CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .254 | .286 | .403 |
| Jose Tena 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .324 | .375 | .351 |
| Drew Millas C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .167 | .250 | .222 |
| Nasim Nunez 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .176 | .273 | .191 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin SP· | 5.0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 68-43 | 6.00 | 68 |
| PJ Poulin RP | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11-6 | 4.97 | 11 |
| Brad Lord RP | 2.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 37-26 | 4.42 | 37 |
| Julian Fernandez RP | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 29-14 | 0.00 | 29 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningBaldwin walked.
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Ball 4
- 6th InningYastrzemski lined out to right.
- 9th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningBaldwin doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored and Yastrzemski scored.4–3
- 4th InningOlson homered to center (419 feet), Baldwin scored.2–2
- 9th InningOlson hit sacrifice fly to center, Yastrzemski scored, White to third.9–4
- 6th InningAlbies singled to left, Baldwin scored, Riley to second.5–3
- 1st InningYoung singled to right, Abrams scored and House scored, Lile to third.0–2
- 6th InningHarris II singled to center, Riley scored, Albies to third.6–3
- 9th InningWhite reached on bunt single to first, Mateo scored, Yastrzemski to second.8–4
- 6th InningYoung reached on throwing error by third baseman Riley, Abrams scored, Young to second.7–4
- 6th InningSmith grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Albies scored, Harris II out at second.7–3
- 4th InningLile homered to right (376 feet).2–3