PHI @ CHC
Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT48°F · 10 mph wind · overcast⚾ Aaron Nola vs Colin ReaMLB.TV
Result readChicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies 1 · Chicago Cubs 5
Final
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Chicago Cubs because Chicago Cubs owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Chicago Cubs has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 73%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 4.
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 73%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Philadelphia Phillies
- Cristopher Sanchez SP · #61
- Aaron Nola SP · #27
- Tim Mayza RP · #37
- Adolis Garcia RF · #53
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs
Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
Philadelphia Phillies
Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreSwanson homered to center (424 feet), Ballesteros scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–4
- ScoreAmaya grounded into double play, Happ scored, Ballesteros to third, Conforto out at second.0–1
- 🏃 DoubleCrawford doubled to left, Stott scored.1–5
- ScoreConforto hit sacrifice fly to center, Busch scored.0–5
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Philadelphia Phillies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .244 | .299 | .356 |
| Kyle Schwarber LF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .213 | .357 | .525 |
| Bryce Harper 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .275 | .370 | .513 |
| Adolis Garcia RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .208 | .303 | .338 |
| Brandon Marsh LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .264 | .289 | .403 |
| Alec Bohm 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .133 | .214 | .187 |
| Bryson Stott 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .210 | .269 | .242 |
| Justin Crawford CF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20 | .283 | .377 | .400 |
| Rafael Marchan C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .065 | .094 | .161 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola SP· | 4.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 88-46 | 5.06 | 88 |
| Kyle Backhus RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5-5 | 5.40 | 5 |
| Chase Shugart RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 28-17 | 1.59 | 28 |
| Seth Johnson SP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 32-18 | 7.36 | 32 |
Chicago Cubs
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .322 | .396 | .506 |
| Michael Busch 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .169 | .261 | .195 |
| Alex Bregman 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .244 | .317 | .344 |
| Ian Happ LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | .244 | .359 | .526 |
| Moises Ballesteros C· | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .378 | .420 | .600 |
| Seiya Suzuki RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | .229 | .372 | .257 |
| Michael Conforto RF· | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | .304 | .452 | .435 |
| Matt Shaw RF | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .273 | .305 | .473 |
| Miguel Amaya C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .243 | .364 | .351 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .214 | .275 | .298 |
| Dansby Swanson SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .192 | .322 | .411 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea SP· | 6.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 92-62 | 3.00 | 92 |
| Hoby Milner RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26-13 | 1.69 | 26 |
| Corbin Martin RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18-12 | 0.00 | 18 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningCrawford walked.
- 9th InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
- 9th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
- 8th InningCrow-Armstrong fouled out to catcher.
- 8th InningSuzuki walked.
Scoring Plays
- 2nd InningSwanson homered to center (424 feet), Ballesteros scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–4
- 2nd InningAmaya grounded into double play, Happ scored, Ballesteros to third, Conforto out at second.0–1
- 4th InningCrawford doubled to left, Stott scored.1–5
- 3rd InningConforto hit sacrifice fly to center, Busch scored.0–5