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In The Rafters

PHI @ CHC

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT61°F · 6 mph wind · clear⚾ Jesus Luzardo vs Shota ImanagaMLB.TV
Result readChicago Cubs

Philadelphia Phillies 4 · Chicago Cubs 7

Final
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Chicago Cubs on the back of Chicago Cubs’s margin work and Chicago Cubs’s last-ten momentum. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 74%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 3.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Philadelphia Phillies

Chicago Cubs

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Philadelphia Phillies
KS Kyle Schwarber LF · #12 JC J. Crawford CF · #2 AG Adolis Garcia RF · #53 AB Alec Bohm 3B · #28 TT Trea Turner SS · #7 BS Bryson Stott 2B · #5 BH Bryce Harper 1B · #3 CS C. Sanchez P · #61 RM Rafael Marchan C · #13
Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreBallesteros walked, Happ scored, Swanson to second, Suzuki to third.5th Inning0–1
  2. ScoreSuzuki homered to left (441 feet), Bregman scored.7th Inning1–6
  3. ScoreBusch scored, Crow-Armstrong to second, Kingery to third on wild pitch by Alvarado.8th Inning3–7
  4. ScoreHarper homered to center (406 feet), Schwarber scored.8th Inning3–6
  5. ScoreHoerner homered to left (371 feet).7th Inning1–4
  6. ScoreSchwarber homered to right center (386 feet).6th Inning1–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Philadelphia Phillies000001021460
Chicago Cubs00001231—7121

Philadelphia Phillies

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Trea Turner SS·0-4400001123.234.294.340
Kyle Schwarber LF·1-3321111010.217.363.554
Bryce Harper 1B·1-4411210113.274.365.536
Felix Reyes LF·1-4401000010.286.286.714
Adolis Garcia RF·1-4411000013.210.301.333
J.T. Realmuto C·0-4400000016.259.344.352
Alec Bohm 3B·0-330010008.128.205.179
Brandon Marsh LF·2-440200009.276.300.408
Edmundo Sosa 2B·0-4400000115.219.265.375

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Jesus Luzardo SP·4.2511430100-606.91100
Orion Kerkering RP0.100020015-64.0515
Tanner Banks RP1.032221030-175.5930
Tim Mayza RP1.023311223-164.8523
Jose Alvarado RP0.121111023-139.8223
Brad Keller RP0.20000003-33.863

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·2-5522110017.326.402.533
Alex Bregman 3B·1-4411002023.245.327.340
Ian Happ LF·1-4421002018.244.367.512
Seiya Suzuki RF·2-4412210120.256.396.359
Carson Kelly C·1-4401001125.310.420.466
Michael Busch 1B·1-4411201121.173.269.198
Dansby Swanson SS·0-2200003130.187.337.400
Matt Shaw RF·1-220100014.281.311.474
Moises Ballesteros C0-000010107.378.431.600
Scott Kingery 3B1-2201000012.250.250.250
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·2-5502000117.225.281.303

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Shota Imanaga SP·7.031111187-522.1787
Riley Martin RP1.012212117-102.4517
Jacob Webb RP0.12100007-74.827
Caleb Thielbar RP0.20000006-42.086

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 6th InningKelly walked.
  2. 1st InningSuzuki grounded out to third.
  3. 6th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
  4. 1st InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play

Scoring Plays

  1. 5th InningBallesteros walked, Happ scored, Swanson to second, Suzuki to third.0–1
  2. 7th InningSuzuki homered to left (441 feet), Bregman scored.1–6
  3. 8th InningBusch scored, Crow-Armstrong to second, Kingery to third on wild pitch by Alvarado.3–7
  4. 8th InningHarper homered to center (406 feet), Schwarber scored.3–6
  5. 7th InningHoerner homered to left (371 feet).1–4
  6. 6th InningSchwarber homered to right center (386 feet).1–1
  7. 9th InningBohm hit sacrifice fly to center, García scored.4–7
  8. 8th InningBusch scored on Alvarado wild pitch, Crow-Armstrong to second on wild pitch by Alvarado, Kingery to third on wild pitch by Alvarado.3–7
  9. 6th InningBusch singled to center, Happ scored and Hoerner scored, Kelly to third.1–3

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