NYY @ BOS
Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:45 PM ET43°F · 5 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Max Fried vs Ranger SuarezMLB.TVPrime Video
Result readNew York Yankees
New York Yankees 4 · Boston Red Sox 1
Final
New York Yankees26-15+1.8 net/g (SOS-adj +1.5) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 60%
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
New York Yankees gets the model’s nod thanks to New York Yankees’s margin advantage, with New York Yankees’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: New York Yankees at 91%. Actual: New York Yankees by 3.
Pre-game pick: New York Yankees at 91%. Actual: New York Yankees by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
New York Yankees
- Cam Schlittler SP · #31
- Max Fried SP · #54
- Aaron Judge RF · #99
- Ben Rice 1B · #22
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
New York Yankees
Jose CaballeroDay-To-DayBen HessDay-To-DayGerrit Cole15-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreDuran singled to center, Story scored.4–1
- ScoreRosario hit sacrifice fly to left, Judge scored.4–0
- ScoreRosario homered to left center (416 feet), Judge scored and Stanton scored.3–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
New York Yankees
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | .125 | .276 | .333 |
| Aaron Judge RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20 | .241 | .359 | .586 |
| Cody Bellinger LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .265 | .370 | .434 |
| Giancarlo Stanton DH· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .265 | .315 | .446 |
| Amed Rosario 3B· | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .265 | .309 | .571 |
| Ben Rice 1B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .314 | .456 | .743 |
| Ryan McMahon 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .125 | .276 | .188 |
| Randal Grichuk LF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .192 | .214 | .308 |
| Trent Grisham CF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .162 | .313 | .338 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .173 | .264 | .235 |
| Jose Caballero SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .238 | .282 | .325 |
| Austin Wells C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .175 | .324 | .246 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried SP· | 8.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 100-66 | 2.40 | 100 |
| Brent Headrick RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26-16 | 2.08 | 26 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .271 | .354 | .357 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .263 | .392 | .438 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .281 | .333 | .449 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .192 | .226 | .303 |
| Andruw Monasterio SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .194 | .286 | .258 |
| Jarren Duran LF· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .194 | .266 | .306 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .147 | .238 | .213 |
| Connor Wong C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .296 | .345 | .444 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .179 | .233 | .179 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez SP· | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 71-47 | 4.00 | 71 |
| Zack Kelly RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11-9 | 4.00 | 11 |
| Eduardo Rivera SP | 3.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 41-26 | 0.00 | 41 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningDurbin grounded out to shortstop.
- 9th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
- 1st InningGoldschmidt grounded out to first.
- 9th InningPitch 6 : Ball 3
- 9th InningDuran singled to center, Story scored.4–1
- 1st InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
- 9th InningPitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningDuran singled to center, Story scored.4–1
- 3rd InningRosario hit sacrifice fly to left, Judge scored.4–0
- 1st InningRosario homered to left center (416 feet), Judge scored and Stanton scored.3–0