SD @ COL
Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM MT59°F · 10 mph wind · clear⚾ Walker Buehler vs Tomoyuki SuganoMLB.TVPadres.TVRockies.TV
Result readColorado Rockies
San Diego Padres 3 · Colorado Rockies 8
Final
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Colorado Rockies16-25-2-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 25%
Venue EdgeCoors FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Colorado Rockies: San Diego Padres’s scoring margin profile and San Diego Padres’s recent stretch. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 87%. Actual: Colorado Rockies by 5.
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 87%. Actual: Colorado Rockies by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Colorado Rockies
- Michael Lorenzen SP · #24
- Tomoyuki Sugano SP · #11
- Jimmy Herget RP · #44
- Brennan Bernardino RP · #83
Injury Report
Colorado Rockies
Jimmy HergetBereavementJared ThomasDay-To-DayMcCade Brown60-Day-ILJeff Criswell60-Day-ILRyan Feltner15-Day-IL
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreRumfield singled to right, Goodman scored.1–5
- ScoreMcCarthy singled to right, Karros scored, Castro to second.2–7
- ScoreCastro singled to right, Johnston scored.1–1
- ScoreGoodman homered to left center (427 feet).2–8
- 🏃 DoubleRumfield doubled to center, Moniak scored.1–6
- ScoreJulien singled to center, Castro scored, McCarthy to third.1–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 8 | 15 | 0 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 30 | .247 | .309 | .459 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .253 | .333 | .299 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .217 | .280 | .380 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .182 | .323 | .286 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .276 | .344 | .402 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | .219 | .260 | .425 |
| Nick Castellanos RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .146 | .196 | .208 |
| Luis Campusano C· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .333 | .385 | .667 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .149 | .267 | .216 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler SP· | 2.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 82-47 | 5.75 | 82 |
| Kyle Hart RP | 2.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42-31 | 4.91 | 42 |
| David Morgan RP | 1.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 38-25 | 2.92 | 38 |
| Wandy Peralta RP | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17-12 | 2.31 | 17 |
Colorado Rockies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edouard Julien 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | .262 | .357 | .344 |
| Ezequiel Tovar SS | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .216 | .258 | .341 |
| Mickey Moniak LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .286 | .313 | .651 |
| Jordan Beck LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .163 | .208 | .265 |
| Hunter Goodman C· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .264 | .340 | .540 |
| Tyler Freeman RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | .282 | .364 | .282 |
| TJ Rumfield 1B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | .253 | .305 | .402 |
| Troy Johnston RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .301 | .354 | .466 |
| Brenton Doyle CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .206 | .270 | .279 |
| Kyle Karros 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .212 | .354 | .303 |
| Willi Castro 2B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | .250 | .311 | .353 |
| Jake McCarthy LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .222 | .300 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomoyuki Sugano SP· | 5.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 101-64 | 3.42 | 101 |
| Jaden Hill RP | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 29-17 | 1.80 | 29 |
| Antonio Senzatela RP | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 32-24 | 0.55 | 32 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningCastellanos struck out swinging.
- 7th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 7th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
- 5th InningCastro lined out to left.
- 4th InningFreeman grounded out to pitcher, Goodman to third.
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningRumfield singled to right, Goodman scored.1–5
- 7th InningMcCarthy singled to right, Karros scored, Castro to second.2–7
- 2nd InningCastro singled to right, Johnston scored.1–1
- 8th InningGoodman homered to left center (427 feet).2–8
- 6th InningRumfield doubled to center, Moniak scored.1–6
- 2nd InningJulien singled to center, Castro scored, McCarthy to third.1–2
- 9th InningCronenworth grounded out to third, Campusano scored.3–8
- 7th InningCampusano homered to left (401 feet).2–6
- 2nd InningFreeman reached on infield single to shortstop, Julien scored, Goodman to second, Moniak to third.1–4
- 2nd InningMoniak doubled to right, McCarthy scored, Julien to third.1–3
- 1st InningMerrill singled to center, Laureano scored.1–0