MIN @ NYM
Citi Field · Queens, New York
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:10 PM ET66°F · 8 mph wind · overcast⚾ Joe Ryan vs Christian ScottMLB.TVTwins.TV
Result readNew York Mets
Minnesota Twins 8 · New York Mets 10
Final
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
New York Mets is the model’s call — Minnesota Twins on the margin numbers, New York Mets on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: New York Mets at 53%. Actual: New York Mets by 2.
Pre-game pick: New York Mets at 53%. Actual: New York Mets by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
Injury Report
New York Mets
Nate LavenderDay-To-DayNick BurdiDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreGray singled to right, Lee scored.8–10
- ScoreMartin walked, Larnach scored, Clemens to second, Jeffers to third.1–0
- ScoreBichette struck out, Semien scored on a passed ball by Jeffers, Bichette to first on passed ball by Jeffers, Benge to third on passed ball by Jeffers.1–4
- ScoreBell singled to left, Lee scored, Larnach to second.2–6
- 🏃 DoubleRobert Jr. doubled to left, Bichette scored, Soto to third.1–6
- ScoreJeffers homered to left (377 feet), Lee scored, Larnach scored and Bell scored.7–7
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| New York Mets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | 10 | 10 | 1 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton CF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .229 | .292 | .448 |
| Trevor Larnach LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 24 | .261 | .433 | .391 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .253 | .347 | .414 |
| Ryan Jeffers C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 19 | .267 | .405 | .483 |
| Kody Clemens 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .163 | .268 | .327 |
| Austin Martin LF· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | .347 | .515 | .469 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .202 | .245 | .263 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | .237 | .301 | .368 |
| Tristan Gray 3B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .268 | .311 | .512 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan SP· | 5.0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 92-66 | 3.90 | 92 |
| Andrew Morris RP | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 37-27 | 7.71 | 37 |
| Anthony Banda RP | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9-5 | 9.90 | 9 |
New York Mets
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette 3B· | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .238 | .270 | .314 |
| Juan Soto LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19 | .324 | .419 | .459 |
| Francisco Alvarez C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .242 | .346 | .455 |
| Luis Robert Jr. CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .232 | .330 | .341 |
| Brett Baty RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .225 | .250 | .338 |
| Mark Vientos 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .226 | .269 | .355 |
| Tyrone Taylor RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .212 | .235 | .333 |
| Marcus Semien 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .239 | .299 | .330 |
| Ronny Mauricio SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .125 | .125 | .125 |
| Carson Benge LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .159 | .237 | .275 |
| Tommy Pham LF | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .000 | .083 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott SP· | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 43-18 | 6.75 | 43 |
| Tobias Myers RP | 2.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 40-26 | 2.60 | 40 |
| David Peterson SP | 3.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 45-29 | 5.06 | 45 |
| Craig Kimbrel RP | 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19-10 | 6.23 | 19 |
| Huascar Brazoban RP | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10-6 | 0.79 | 10 |
| Devin Williams RP | 0.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22-14 | 10.29 | 22 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningPham walked.
- 8th InningPitch 6 : Ball 4
- 8th InningLee singled to center.
- 8th InningPitch 5 : Ball 3
- 8th InningPitch 6 : Ball In Play
- 2nd InningSoto walked.
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningGray singled to right, Lee scored.8–10
- 1st InningMartin walked, Larnach scored, Clemens to second, Jeffers to third.1–0
- 2nd InningBichette struck out, Semien scored on a passed ball by Jeffers, Bichette to first on passed ball by Jeffers, Benge to third on passed ball by Jeffers.1–4
- 4th InningBell singled to left, Lee scored, Larnach to second.2–6
- 2nd InningRobert Jr. doubled to left, Bichette scored, Soto to third.1–6
- 8th InningJeffers homered to left (377 feet), Lee scored, Larnach scored and Bell scored.7–7
- 2nd InningAlvarez hit sacrifice fly to left, Benge scored.1–5
- 8th InningBichette doubled to left, Baty scored, Pham scored and Semien scored.7–10
- 4th InningBenge homered to right center (388 feet).2–7
- 6th InningGray homered to right center (401 feet).3–7
- 1st InningBaty homered to right (414 feet), Bichette scored and Robert Jr. scored.1–3