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In The Rafters

DET @ CIN

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Framber Valdez vs Andrew AbbottMLB.TVReds.TVTigers.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds

Detroit Tigers 8 · Cincinnati Reds 9

Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Cincinnati Reds because Detroit Tigers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Detroit Tigers has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 87%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Detroit Tigers

Cincinnati Reds

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day

Detroit Tigers

Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Detroit Tigers
RG Riley Greene LF · #31 MV Matt Vierling CF · #8 KC K. Carpenter RF · #30 CK Colt Keith 3B · #33 KM K. McGonigle SS · #7 GT Gleyber Torres 2B · #25 ST S. Torkelson 1B · #20 FV Framber Valdez P · #59 DD Dillon Dingler C · #13
Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 💣 Home RunDe La Cruz scored on error, Lowe safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Báez, Lowe safe at second on error.7th Inning5–6
  2. ScoreMcLain homered to center (419 feet), Myers scored.7th Inning5–5
  3. ScoreMcLain homered to center (421 feet), Myers scored.5th Inning5–2
  4. ScoreTorkelson homered to left (435 feet).8th Inning6–7
  5. ScoreLowe homered to right center (438 feet).6th Inning5–3
  6. ScoreBáez homered to center (403 feet).3rd Inning2–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Detroit Tigers0131000308111
Cincinnati Reds0000214029110

Detroit Tigers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jahmai Jones RF·1-330110019.250.250.500
Kerry Carpenter RF1-221121004.221.321.500
Gleyber Torres 2B·0-2210003128.232.373.284
Kevin McGonigle SS·1-3311001122.320.416.495
Matt Vierling CF·1-5501200023.229.269.396
Dillon Dingler C·0-4400001136.250.333.488
Riley Greene LF·2-5512110126.295.396.474
Spencer Torkelson 1B·2-3322111017.210.347.370
Hao-Yu Lee 3B·0-220000009.188.235.250
Colt Keith 3B2-221200008.333.367.427
Javier Baez SS·1-4411110111.278.303.431

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Framber Valdez SP·4.142254189-473.4189
Kyle Finnegan RP1.221104128-180.7128
Will Vest RP0.223211122-126.7522
Brant Hurter RP0.111001011-62.7011
Drew Anderson RP1.000002014-107.3014
Kenley Jansen RP0.222201114-103.6814

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Dane Myers CF·1-3321002228.265.419.353
Matt McLain 2B·2-4422421021.223.348.340
Elly De La Cruz SS·2-4412001023.274.342.547
Sal Stewart 1B·0-4400001220.284.381.589
Spencer Steer LF·2-5512000220.232.297.439
Nathaniel Lowe 1B·2-5532320016.257.333.514
Tyler Stephenson C·1-3301101214.167.292.283
Rece Hinds RF·1-4401000319.143.194.250
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B·0-3300000113.081.162.129
TJ Friedl CF0-110000014.159.260.182

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Andrew Abbott SP·4.065524289-556.5989
Kyle Nicolas RP1.020030043-218.5943
Pierce Johnson RP1.00000006-52.386
Brock Burke RP1.000001020-130.7320
Tony Santillan RP1.033301218-112.3118
Graham Ashcraft RP1.000010017-101.3817

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 5th InningStewart struck out swinging.
  2. 8th InningGreene struck out swinging.
  3. 7th InningDingler grounded out to pitcher.
  4. 5th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
  5. 5th InningDingler grounded into double play, pitcher to second to first, McGonigle out at second.

Scoring Plays

  1. 7th InningDe La Cruz scored on error, Lowe safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Báez, Lowe safe at second on error.5–6
  2. 7th InningMcLain homered to center (419 feet), Myers scored.5–5
  3. 5th InningMcLain homered to center (421 feet), Myers scored.5–2
  4. 8th InningTorkelson homered to left (435 feet).6–7
  5. 6th InningLowe homered to right center (438 feet).5–3
  6. 3rd InningBáez homered to center (403 feet).2–0
  7. 4th InningJones singled to center, Torkelson scored.5–0
  8. 3rd InningVierling doubled to center, McGonigle scored and Torres scored.4–0
  9. 9th InningLowe homered to right center (396 feet), Steer scored.8–9
  10. 7th InningStephenson doubled to left, Lowe scored.5–7
  11. 8th InningCarpenter homered to right (368 feet), Keith scored.8–7
  12. 2nd InningGreene homered to right center (405 feet).1–0

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