PIT @ MIL
American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameIndoor1:10 PM CT⚾ Carmen Mlodzinski vs Kyle HarrisonESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVBrewers.TV
Result readMilwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates 0 · Milwaukee Brewers 5
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Milwaukee Brewers22-16-2+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 75%
Venue EdgeAmerican Family FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Milwaukee Brewers gets the model’s nod thanks to Milwaukee Brewers’s margin advantage, with Milwaukee Brewers’s recent run providing the second tip. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 64%. Actual: Milwaukee Brewers by 5.
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 64%. Actual: Milwaukee Brewers by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Milwaukee Brewers
- Jacob Misiorowski SP · #32
- Kyle Harrison SP · #52
- Aaron Ashby RP · #26
- DL Hall RP · #37
Injury Report
Milwaukee Brewers
J.B. BukauskasDay-To-DayBrandon Woodruff15-Day-ILChristian Yelich10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge10-Day-ILRob Zastryzny60-Day-IL
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreLockridge singled to left, Rengifo scored and Hamilton scored.0–5
- 🏃 DoubleHamilton doubled to right, Frelick scored, Rengifo to third.0–3
- ScoreRengifo singled to center, Bauers scored, Frelick to second.0–2
- ScoreSánchez grounded out to second, Contreras scored.0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 | 7 | 1 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | .254 | .313 | .288 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 | .303 | .347 | .348 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 24 | .242 | .387 | .374 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .169 | .237 | .258 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .315 | .404 | .489 |
| Nick Yorke 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .219 | .311 | .313 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .257 | .372 | .371 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | .224 | .286 | .316 |
| Joey Bart C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .158 | .214 | .263 |
| Billy Cook RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .273 | .273 | .273 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski SP· | 3.2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 81-52 | 4.13 | 81 |
| Evan Sisk RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23-13 | 2.16 | 23 |
| Cam Sanders RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 32-20 | 13.50 | 32 |
| Justin Lawrence RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9-6 | 5.54 | 9 |
Milwaukee Brewers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .258 | .391 | .462 |
| William Contreras C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .263 | .336 | .384 |
| Jake Bauers 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .261 | .316 | .477 |
| Gary Sanchez C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .237 | .384 | .559 |
| Garrett Mitchell CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .235 | .395 | .382 |
| Sal Frelick RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .198 | .302 | .259 |
| Luis Rengifo 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .173 | .250 | .253 |
| David Hamilton 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .234 | .355 | .250 |
| Joey Ortiz SS | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .180 | .265 | .180 |
| Brandon Lockridge LF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .269 | .347 | .313 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Harrison SP· | 6.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 101-72 | 2.28 | 101 |
| Trevor Megill RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26-15 | 7.20 | 26 |
| Aaron Ashby RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 28-14 | 2.45 | 28 |
| Abner Uribe RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13-9 | 3.97 | 13 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 4th InningContreras singled to right.
- 1st InningGonzales struck out swinging.
- 7th InningYorke struck out swinging.
- 4th InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
- 1st InningPitch 10 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningLockridge singled to left, Rengifo scored and Hamilton scored.0–5
- 4th InningHamilton doubled to right, Frelick scored, Rengifo to third.0–3
- 4th InningRengifo singled to center, Bauers scored, Frelick to second.0–2
- 4th InningSánchez grounded out to second, Contreras scored.0–1