COL @ CIN
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET64°F · 3 mph wind · overcast⚾ Kyle Freeland vs Chase BurnsMLB.TVRockies.TVReds.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds
Colorado Rockies 2 · Cincinnati Reds 7
Final
Colorado Rockies16-25-2-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 25%
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Cincinnati Reds: Cincinnati Reds’s scoring margin profile and Colorado Rockies’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Colorado Rockies at 56%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 5.
Pre-game pick: Colorado Rockies at 56%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Colorado Rockies
- Michael Lorenzen SP · #24
- Tomoyuki Sugano SP · #11
- Jimmy Herget RP · #44
- Brennan Bernardino RP · #83
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
Injury Report
Cincinnati Reds
Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
Colorado Rockies
Jimmy HergetBereavementJared ThomasDay-To-DayMcCade Brown60-Day-ILJeff Criswell60-Day-ILRyan Feltner15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreSteer homered to left center (411 feet), De La Cruz scored.0–3
- ScoreJulien singled to center, McCarthy scored.2–4
- ScoreDe La Cruz homered to left center (376 feet), Myers scored.2–6
- ScoreJulien homered to center (403 feet).1–3
- ScoreLowe singled to right, Stewart scored.2–7
- ScoreDe La Cruz reached on infield single to first, Myers scored.0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | 7 | 11 | 1 |
Colorado Rockies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edouard Julien 2B· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .308 | .393 | .449 |
| Mickey Moniak LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .310 | .344 | .655 |
| Hunter Goodman C· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | .250 | .324 | .520 |
| TJ Rumfield 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .260 | .333 | .413 |
| Tyler Freeman RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .269 | .345 | .288 |
| Troy Johnston RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .315 | .376 | .457 |
| Kyle Karros 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .190 | .330 | .262 |
| Brenton Doyle CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .208 | .274 | .273 |
| Willi Castro 2B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .246 | .316 | .348 |
| Ezequiel Tovar SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .193 | .228 | .294 |
| Jake McCarthy LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .268 | .328 | .393 |
| Jordan Beck LF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .170 | .224 | .264 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 79-52 | 3.48 | 79 |
| Tanner Gordon RP | 3.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 50-33 | 7.36 | 50 |
Cincinnati Reds
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Myers CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .293 | .431 | .366 |
| Matt McLain 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | .210 | .336 | .324 |
| Elly De La Cruz SS· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .291 | .362 | .590 |
| Sal Stewart 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .290 | .381 | .598 |
| Spencer Steer LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .217 | .291 | .435 |
| Nathaniel Lowe 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .277 | .346 | .596 |
| Tyler Stephenson C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .162 | .284 | .265 |
| Rece Hinds RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .133 | .182 | .233 |
| TJ Friedl CF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .184 | .273 | .255 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .123 | .190 | .205 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns SP· | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 97-64 | 2.65 | 97 |
| Graham Ashcraft RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16-10 | 1.20 | 16 |
| Tony Santillan RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19-13 | 2.13 | 19 |
| Brock Burke RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11-9 | 0.63 | 11 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 1st InningLowe grounded out to third.
- 8th InningJohnston walked.
- 3rd InningMcLain grounded out to shortstop.
- 1st InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
Scoring Plays
- 1st InningSteer homered to left center (411 feet), De La Cruz scored.0–3
- 5th InningJulien singled to center, McCarthy scored.2–4
- 8th InningDe La Cruz homered to left center (376 feet), Myers scored.2–6
- 3rd InningJulien homered to center (403 feet).1–3
- 8th InningLowe singled to right, Stewart scored.2–7
- 1st InningDe La Cruz reached on infield single to first, Myers scored.0–1
- 3rd InningDe La Cruz singled to center, Myers scored.1–4