COL @ CIN
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Tomoyuki Sugano vs Brandon WilliamsonMLB.TVRockies.TVReds.TV
Result readColorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 13 · Cincinnati Reds 2
Final
Colorado Rockies16-25-2-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 25%
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Colorado Rockies is the model’s call — Cincinnati Reds on the margin numbers, Colorado Rockies on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Cincinnati Reds at 61%. Actual: Colorado Rockies by 11.
Pre-game pick: Cincinnati Reds at 61%. Actual: Colorado Rockies by 11.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Colorado Rockies
- Michael Lorenzen SP · #24
- Tomoyuki Sugano SP · #11
- Jimmy Herget RP · #44
- Brennan Bernardino RP · #83
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
Injury Report
Cincinnati Reds
Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
Colorado Rockies
Jimmy HergetBereavementJared ThomasDay-To-DayMcCade Brown60-Day-ILJeff Criswell60-Day-ILRyan Feltner15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreBenson homered to right center (400 feet), Stephenson scored.13–2
- ScoreTovar singled to right, Goodman scored and Sullivan scored, Karros to second.10–0
- 🏃 DoubleSullivan doubled to right, Castro scored, Doyle scored and Goodman scored, Sullivan to third.3–0
- ScoreMoniak hit a ground rule double, Karros scored, Tovar to third.11–0
- ScoreGoodman homered to left (415 feet), Rumfield scored.7–0
- 🏃 DoubleCastro doubled to center, Doyle scored, Rumfield to third.4–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Colorado Rockies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Beck LF· | 0-6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .153 | .203 | .237 |
| Brenton Doyle CF· | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | .220 | .289 | .293 |
| TJ Rumfield 1B· | 2-6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .264 | .333 | .418 |
| Hunter Goodman C· | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | .269 | .345 | .587 |
| Willi Castro 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .260 | .333 | .370 |
| Brett Sullivan C· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .289 | .319 | .422 |
| Kyle Karros 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | .193 | .324 | .261 |
| Ezequiel Tovar SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .195 | .235 | .292 |
| Mickey Moniak LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | .310 | .358 | .655 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomoyuki Sugano SP· | 5.1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 91-60 | 2.84 | 91 |
| Brennan Bernardino RP | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21-12 | 0.71 | 21 |
| Juan Mejia RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15-11 | 5.02 | 15 |
| Jimmy Herget RP | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 26-17 | 2.77 | 26 |
Cincinnati Reds
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl CF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .184 | .270 | .252 |
| Matt McLain 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | .218 | .338 | .327 |
| Elly De La Cruz SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .283 | .358 | .575 |
| Sal Stewart 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .288 | .377 | .586 |
| Nathaniel Lowe 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .265 | .345 | .571 |
| Tyler Stephenson C | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .174 | .293 | .290 |
| Spencer Steer LF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .223 | .302 | .436 |
| Will Benson RF | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .184 | .326 | .342 |
| JJ Bleday LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .400 | .500 | 1.000 |
| Jose Trevino C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .125 | .176 | .125 |
| Rece Hinds RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .129 | .176 | .226 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .130 | .193 | .208 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williamson SP· | 3.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 58-33 | 6.11 | 58 |
| Luis Mey RP | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 32-18 | 4.50 | 32 |
| Jose Franco RP | 3.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 41-28 | 5.91 | 41 |
| Jose Trevino C· | 1.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20-15 | 45.00 | 20 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 6th InningDe La Cruz walked, McLain to second.
- 6th InningTovar struck out swinging.
- 2nd InningTovar walked.
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningBenson homered to right center (400 feet), Stephenson scored.13–2
- 9th InningTovar singled to right, Goodman scored and Sullivan scored, Karros to second.10–0
- 1st InningSullivan doubled to right, Castro scored, Doyle scored and Goodman scored, Sullivan to third.3–0
- 9th InningMoniak hit a ground rule double, Karros scored, Tovar to third.11–0
- 7th InningGoodman homered to left (415 feet), Rumfield scored.7–0
- 3rd InningCastro doubled to center, Doyle scored, Rumfield to third.4–0
- 9th InningDoyle singled to left, Moniak scored.13–0
- 9th InningBeck grounded out to shortstop, Tovar scored, Moniak to third.12–0
- 7th InningKarros hit sacrifice fly to center, Castro scored, Sullivan to third.8–0
- 5th InningGoodman homered to left center (412 feet).5–0