DET @ ATL
Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:15 PM ET69°F · 5 mph wind · overcast⚾ Tarik Skubal vs JR RitchieMLB.TVBravesVisionTigers.TV
Result readAtlanta Braves
Detroit Tigers 3 · Atlanta Braves 4
Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeTruist ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Atlanta Braves because Atlanta Braves owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Atlanta Braves has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 81%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 1.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 81%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreOlson homered to right center (397 feet), Albies scored.3–4
- ScoreJung scored, McGonigle to second on pickoff error by pitcher Ritchie.2–2
- ScoreJung scored, McGonigle to second on pickoff error by pitcher Ritchie.2–2
- ScoreGreene homered to center (417 feet).3–2
- ScoreAlbies homered to left (400 feet), Baldwin scored.0–2
- ScoreMcGonigle singled to center, Pérez scored, Jung to third.1–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Atlanta Braves | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .333 | .420 | .518 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .236 | .379 | .311 |
| Colt Keith 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .318 | .348 | .398 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .291 | .391 | .473 |
| Dillon Dingler C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .242 | .324 | .462 |
| Kerry Carpenter RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .222 | .316 | .494 |
| Matt Vierling CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .193 | .262 | .333 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .219 | .348 | .438 |
| Wenceel Perez RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .130 | .184 | .283 |
| Jace Jung 3B· | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .000 | .500 | .000 |
| Jahmai Jones RF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .200 | .222 | .400 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal SP· | 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 91-60 | 2.70 | 91 |
| Kyle Finnegan RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 29-17 | 0.61 | 29 |
| Kenley Jansen RP | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11-6 | 6.14 | 11 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | .241 | .357 | .371 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .307 | .380 | .504 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .317 | .364 | .533 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 27 | .306 | .381 | .636 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .197 | .282 | .325 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .274 | .319 | .425 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .320 | .355 | .540 |
| Eli White CF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .184 | .200 | .368 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .202 | .276 | .270 |
| Jonah Heim C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .219 | .306 | .313 |
| Reynaldo Lopez SP | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Dominic Smith 1B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | .344 | .377 | .563 |
| Jorge Mateo SS | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .333 | .429 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JR Ritchie SP· | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 97-56 | 2.92 | 97 |
| Dylan Lee RP | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 28-16 | 1.23 | 28 |
| Reynaldo Lopez SP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17-12 | 3.42 | 17 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningTorkelson struck out looking.
- 1st InningOlson grounded out to third.
- 9th InningPitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking
- 8th InningBaldwin grounded out to shortstop.
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningOlson homered to right center (397 feet), Albies scored.3–4
- 2nd InningJung scored, McGonigle to second on pickoff error by pitcher Ritchie.2–2
- 2nd InningJung scored, McGonigle to second on pickoff error by pitcher Ritchie.2–2
- 3rd InningGreene homered to center (417 feet).3–2
- 1st InningAlbies homered to left (400 feet), Baldwin scored.0–2
- 2nd InningMcGonigle singled to center, Pérez scored, Jung to third.1–2