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InTheRafters.com

ARI @ CHC

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:20 PM CT42°F · 6 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Zac Gallen vs Colin ReaMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readChicago Cubs

Arizona Diamondbacks 5 · Chicago Cubs 6

Final
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Chicago Cubs: Chicago Cubs’s scoring margin profile and Chicago Cubs’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 80%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Arizona Diamondbacks

Chicago Cubs

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL

Arizona Diamondbacks

Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Arizona Diamondbacks
JB Jorge Barrosa LF · #1 AT Alek Thomas CF · #5 CC Corbin Carroll RF · #7 NA Nolan Arenado 3B · #28 GP G. Perdomo SS · #2 KM Ketel Marte 2B · #4 JF Jose Fernandez 1B · #11 ZG Zac Gallen P · #23 AC A. Castillo C · #25
Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreSwanson singled to left, Kelly scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.4th Inning1–4
  2. ScoreCrow-Armstrong scored on Gallen wild pitch, Swanson to second on wild pitch by Gallen.4th Inning1–5
  3. ScorePerdomo homered to left (366 feet), Tawa scored and Barrosa scored.6th Inning5–6
  4. 🏃 DoubleBregman doubled to left, Swanson scored.4th Inning1–6
  5. ScoreCrow-Armstrong scored on Gallen wild pitch, Swanson to second on wild pitch by Gallen.4th Inning1–5
  6. ScoreVargas singled to right, Barrosa scored.3rd Inning1–3

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Arizona Diamondbacks0010040005110
Chicago Cubs30030000—681

Arizona Diamondbacks

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Geraldo Perdomo SS·2-5512310126.245.360.404
Ildemaro Vargas 1B·4-4404101020.404.429.702
Corbin Carroll RF·0-5500000323.282.380.544
Adrian Del Castillo C·1-4401000222.210.246.355
Ketel Marte 2B0-110000003.231.291.385
Gabriel Moreno C·0-5500000320.244.300.356
Jose Fernandez 1B·1-4411000012.322.344.460
Nolan Arenado 3B·1-4401000218.275.312.441
Alek Thomas CF·0-220000028.184.220.345
Tim Tawa LF0-1110001012.156.250.267
Jorge Barrosa LF·2-4422100010.219.265.438

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Zac Gallen SP·3.276633095-574.4595
Ryan Thompson RP1.110010019-113.5519
Brandyn Garcia RP2.000002020-130.0020
Kevin Ginkel RP1.000000014-83.6814

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·1-111100004.297.374.461
Matt Shaw RF0-3300000116.289.329.487
Moises Ballesteros C·0-3300001115.324.386.595
Alex Bregman 3B·1-4411100012.258.347.375
Ian Happ LF·0-2210002120.226.355.452
Seiya Suzuki RF·0-3300001120.314.422.543
Michael Busch 1B·2-4402200117.203.301.297
Carson Kelly C·2-4412100014.316.413.443
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·1-4411000012.242.305.358
Dansby Swanson SS·1-4411100018.216.341.431

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Colin Rea SP·5.1822060102-714.41102
Ryan Rolison RP0.233312125-154.0525
Phil Maton RP1.000002011-912.0011
Jacob Webb RP2.000013036-234.2636

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 4th InningSwanson singled to left, Kelly scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.1–4
  2. 4th InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
  3. 2nd InningShaw grounded out to pitcher.
  4. 8th InningKelly fouled out to first.

Scoring Plays

  1. 4th InningSwanson singled to left, Kelly scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.1–4
  2. 4th InningCrow-Armstrong scored on Gallen wild pitch, Swanson to second on wild pitch by Gallen.1–5
  3. 6th InningPerdomo homered to left (366 feet), Tawa scored and Barrosa scored.5–6
  4. 4th InningBregman doubled to left, Swanson scored.1–6
  5. 4th InningCrow-Armstrong scored on Gallen wild pitch, Swanson to second on wild pitch by Gallen.1–5
  6. 3rd InningVargas singled to right, Barrosa scored.1–3
  7. 1st InningBusch singled to left, Bregman scored and Hoerner scored, Happ to third.0–2
  8. 6th InningBarrosa reached on bunt double to third, Fernandez scored, Tawa to third.2–6
  9. 1st InningKelly singled to center, Happ scored, Busch to third.0–3

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