InTheRafters.com

CIN @ PIT

Joshua Silvia
11–16 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:45 PM ET⚾ Brady Singer vs Mitch KellerApple TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds 1 · Pittsburgh Pirates 9

Final
Cincinnati Reds20-18-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Pittsburgh Pirates21-17+0.7 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Pittsburgh Pirates because Pittsburgh Pirates owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Pittsburgh Pirates has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 75%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 8.

Players to Watch

Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

Jake MangumDay-To-DayDominic FletcherDay-To-DayChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILSean SullivanDay-To-Day

Cincinnati Reds

Nick Lodolo15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILAlex YoungOutJosh StaumontDay-To-DayEugenio Suarez10-Day-IL

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37
Pittsburgh Pirates
BR Bryan Reynolds LF · #10 OC Oneil Cruz CF · #15 RO Ryan O'Hearn RF · #29 NG Nick Gonzales 3B · #3 KG Konnor Griffin SS · #6 BL Brandon Lowe 2B · #5 SH S. Horwitz 1B · #2 MK Mitch Keller P · #23 HD Henry Davis C · #32

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreDavis homered to left (385 feet), Griffin scored.5th Inning0–8
  2. ScoreGriffin walked, O'Hearn scored, Horwitz to second, Gonzales to third.6th Inning1–9
  3. ScoreOzuna homered to center (425 feet), Gonzales scored.5th Inning0–6
  4. ScoreDe La Cruz grounded out to second, Friedl scored.6th Inning1–8
  5. ScoreReynolds homered to center (443 feet).1st Inning0–1
  6. ScoreDavis homered to center (415 feet).4th Inning0–4

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Cincinnati Reds000001000130
Pittsburgh Pirates10214100—9121

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
TJ Friedl CF·2-4412000012.198.276.297
Matt McLain 2B·0-4400000219.203.319.305
Elly De La Cruz SS·0-4400100114.273.345.547
Sal Stewart 1B·0-4400000010.271.362.551
Nathaniel Lowe 1B·0-3300000216.273.355.618
Rece Hinds RF0-110000018.125.171.219
Spencer Steer LF·1-2201001115.242.327.455
JJ Bleday LF·0-3300000015.222.417.556
Tyler Stephenson C·0-3300000015.171.281.289
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B·0-330000018.125.186.200

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Brady Singer SP·3.174421256-355.5756
Zachary Maxwell UN1.034421242-2536.0042
Sam Moll RP0.200001010-72.0810
Pierce Johnson RP1.021120029-134.1529
Luis Mey RP1.000011027-143.0027
Jose Trevino C1.000011011-522.5011

Pittsburgh Pirates

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Oneil Cruz CF·1-5501000327.254.317.508
Brandon Lowe 2B·0-4400001021.243.333.532
Bryan Reynolds LF·2-4422211124.254.395.424
Jake Mangum LF0-000000000.271.329.300
Ryan O'Hearn RF·2-5512100017.310.394.478
Billy Cook RF0-000000000.273.273.273
Nick Gonzales 3B·3-4413001022.333.385.380
Marcell Ozuna DH·1-4411211118.165.232.272
Spencer Horwitz 1B·0-3300002014.241.364.368
Konnor Griffin SS·1-4411101014.232.295.337
Henry Davis C·2-3332321018.176.273.309

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Mitch Keller SP·7.0311160104-712.85104
Justin Lawrence RP1.000000013-94.8013
Evan Sisk RP1.000002015-92.3815

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 5th InningStephenson grounded out to shortstop, Steer to third.
  2. 5th InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
  3. 5th InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul
  4. 9th InningHinds struck out swinging.
  5. 7th InningCruz struck out looking.
  6. 5th InningCruz struck out looking.

Scoring Plays

  1. 5th InningDavis homered to left (385 feet), Griffin scored.0–8
  2. 6th InningGriffin walked, O'Hearn scored, Horwitz to second, Gonzales to third.1–9
  3. 5th InningOzuna homered to center (425 feet), Gonzales scored.0–6
  4. 6th InningDe La Cruz grounded out to second, Friedl scored.1–8
  5. 1st InningReynolds homered to center (443 feet).0–1
  6. 4th InningDavis homered to center (415 feet).0–4
  7. 3rd InningO'Hearn singled to right, Reynolds scored.0–3
  8. 3rd InningReynolds tripled to center, Davis scored.0–2

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