ARI @ CHC
Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:20 PM CT⚾ Merrill Kelly vs Matthew BoydMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readChicago Cubs
Arizona Diamondbacks 4 · Chicago Cubs 8
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Chicago Cubs because Chicago Cubs owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Chicago Cubs has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 78%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 4.
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 78%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
Chicago Cubs
- Edward Cabrera SP · #30
- Jameson Taillon SP · #50
- Alex Bregman 3B · #3
- Nico Hoerner 2B · #2
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs
Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreDel Castillo homered to center (412 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.4–8
- ScoreKelly singled to center, Busch scored.2–1
- ScoreMoreno homered to left center (427 feet), Arenado scored.2–0
- ScoreBusch hit sacrifice fly to right, Happ scored, Suzuki to third.2–7
- ScoreKelly singled to left, Suzuki scored.2–8
- ScoreBallesteros homered to left center (389 feet), Hoerner scored.2–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 8 | 12 | 0 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | .214 | .272 | .357 |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | .245 | .352 | .402 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .273 | .372 | .518 |
| Ildemaro Vargas 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .382 | .406 | .657 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .275 | .310 | .440 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .233 | .283 | .279 |
| Gabriel Moreno C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .245 | .296 | .408 |
| Jose Fernandez 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .304 | .340 | .435 |
| Jorge Barrosa LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .203 | .257 | .406 |
| Adrian Del Castillo C | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .222 | .258 | .413 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly SP· | 4.1 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 92-58 | 9.95 | 92 |
| Ryan Thompson RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4-4 | 3.38 | 4 |
| Brandon Pfaadt RP | 2.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 52-28 | 5.83 | 52 |
| Paul Sewald RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8-6 | 3.86 | 8 |
Chicago Cubs
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .301 | .375 | .466 |
| Moises Ballesteros C· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | .317 | .380 | .598 |
| Alex Bregman 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .243 | .333 | .353 |
| Ian Happ LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 29 | .248 | .381 | .512 |
| Seiya Suzuki RF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | .308 | .402 | .526 |
| Michael Busch 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .218 | .317 | .339 |
| Carson Kelly C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .325 | .417 | .446 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .236 | .302 | .354 |
| Dansby Swanson SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .213 | .338 | .417 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd SP· | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 94-65 | 6.00 | 94 |
| Phil Maton RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25-15 | 10.29 | 25 |
| Hoby Milner RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15-9 | 2.25 | 15 |
| Corbin Martin RP | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 26-14 | 5.40 | 26 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningDel Castillo homered to center (412 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.4–8
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
- 1st InningMarte struck out swinging.
- 9th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningDel Castillo homered to center (412 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.4–8
- 2nd InningKelly singled to center, Busch scored.2–1
- 2nd InningMoreno homered to left center (427 feet), Arenado scored.2–0
- 7th InningBusch hit sacrifice fly to right, Happ scored, Suzuki to third.2–7
- 7th InningKelly singled to left, Suzuki scored.2–8
- 3rd InningBallesteros homered to left center (389 feet), Hoerner scored.2–3
- 5th InningBusch tripled to right, Ballesteros scored, Bregman scored and Happ scored.2–6