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InTheRafters.com

BAL @ NYY

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET⚾ Trey Gibson vs Max FriedMLB.TV
Result readNew York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles 3 · New York Yankees 11

Final
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
New York Yankees26-15+1.8 net/g (SOS-adj +1.5) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeYankee StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on New York Yankees: New York Yankees’s scoring margin profile and New York Yankees’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: New York Yankees at 84%. Actual: New York Yankees by 8.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Injury Report

New York Yankees

Jose CaballeroDay-To-DayBen HessDay-To-DayGerrit Cole15-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez10-Day-IL

Baltimore Orioles

Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Baltimore Orioles
TW Taylor Ward LF · #3 LT Leody Taveras CF · #30 CC Colton Cowser RF · #17 CM Coby Mayo 3B · #16 GH G. Henderson SS · #2 JJ J. Jackson 2B · #82 PA Pete Alonso 1B · #25 CB Chris Bassitt P · #40 SB Samuel Basallo C · #29
New York Yankees
CB Cody Bellinger LF · #35 TG Trent Grisham CF · #12 AJ Aaron Judge RF · #99 RM Ryan McMahon 3B · #19 JC Jose Caballero SS · #72 JC Chisholm Jr. 2B · #13 BR Ben Rice 1B · #22 CS Cam Schlittler P · #31 AW Austin Wells C · #28

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreGoldschmidt singled to center, McMahon scored and Caballero scored.8th Inning3–9
  2. ScoreAlexander singled to right, Wilson scored, Alexander out stretching at second.3rd Inning1–1
  3. ScoreDomínguez homered to right center (348 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.8th Inning3–6
  4. ScoreJackson grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, O'Neill scored, Taveras out at second, Mayo to third.4th Inning3–3
  5. ScoreTaveras reached on infield single to second, Alonso scored, Mayo to second, O'Neill to third.4th Inning2–3
  6. ScoreGrisham hit sacrifice fly to left, Wells scored.8th Inning3–7

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Baltimore Orioles001200000391
New York Yankees10200107—11151

Baltimore Orioles

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Taylor Ward LF·0-3300001016.288.423.416
Adley Rutschman C·0-4400000017.296.342.549
Pete Alonso 1B·2-4412000222.214.322.421
Tyler O'Neill RF·0-3310001116.205.352.273
Coby Mayo 3B·1-4401000115.165.234.306
Leody Taveras CF·1-3301101119.278.388.431
Jeremiah Jackson 2B·1-4401000123.259.277.454
Weston Wilson 3B·1-221100016.294.429.353
Samuel Basallo C1-220100019.244.320.444
Blaze Alexander 3B·2-4402100115.192.253.219

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Trey Gibson SP·4.243322287-565.7987
Grant Wolfram RP0.231100015-114.6315
Yennier Cano RP0.20000008-51.598
Rico Garcia RP1.000001017-110.6117
Andrew Kittredge RP0.177700122-1518.9022
Dietrich Enns RP0.210010013-83.0013

New York Yankees

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Trent Grisham CF·0-4400100023.162.297.352
Ben Rice 1B·2-222211003.343.455.759
Paul Goldschmidt 1B1-3311200015.171.293.371
Aaron Judge RF·2-4422211122.264.403.628
Max Schuemann 3B0-000000000.000.500.000
Cody Bellinger LF·1-4401001027.275.373.483
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B·1-3311101011.212.299.331
Jasson Dominguez LF·3-5523310018.278.316.556
Austin Wells C·1-5511000224.203.333.329
Ryan McMahon 3B·3-4413100013.200.289.300
Jose Caballero SS·1-441100006.259.306.405

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Max Fried SP·5.1633360107-632.39107
Fernando Cruz RP1.010000017-82.8417
Brent Headrick RP1.210001016-111.5916
David Bednar RP1.010002018-133.2918

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 7th InningBellinger lined out to center.
  2. 1st InningWard walked.
  3. 8th InningBellinger walked, Judge to second, Goldschmidt to third.
  4. 7th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play

Scoring Plays

  1. 8th InningGoldschmidt singled to center, McMahon scored and Caballero scored.3–9
  2. 3rd InningAlexander singled to right, Wilson scored, Alexander out stretching at second.1–1
  3. 8th InningDomínguez homered to right center (348 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.3–6
  4. 4th InningJackson grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, O'Neill scored, Taveras out at second, Mayo to third.3–3
  5. 4th InningTaveras reached on infield single to second, Alonso scored, Mayo to second, O'Neill to third.2–3
  6. 8th InningGrisham hit sacrifice fly to left, Wells scored.3–7
  7. 8th InningDomínguez doubled to left, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.3–11
  8. 6th InningMcMahon reached on infield single to first, Domínguez scored.3–4
  9. 3rd InningJudge homered to center (413 feet), Rice scored.1–3
  10. 8th InningChisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Goldschmidt scored.3–10
  11. 1st InningRice homered to right (379 feet).0–1

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