ATL @ SEA
T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM PT⚾ JR Ritchie vs Logan GilbertMLB.TVBravesVisionMariners.TV
Result readSeattle Mariners
Atlanta Braves 4 · Seattle Mariners 5
Final
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeT-Mobile ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Seattle Mariners because Atlanta Braves owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Atlanta Braves has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 93%. Actual: Seattle Mariners by 1.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 93%. Actual: Seattle Mariners by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Seattle Mariners
- Bryan Woo SP · #22
- George Kirby SP · #68
- Cal Raleigh C · #29
- Cole Young 2B · #2
Injury Report
Seattle Mariners
Patrick Wisdom10-Day-ILVictor Robles10-Day-ILBryce Miller15-Day-ILTeddy McGrawDay-To-DayJose Ferrerpaternity
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreCrawford homered to right (357 feet), Garver scored.4–5
- ScoreRiley homered to left center (427 feet).4–0
- ScoreOlson homered to center (428 feet).3–0
- ScoreRaley homered to right center (388 feet), Arozarena scored and Canzone scored.4–3
- ScoreAlbies homered to center (414 feet).2–0
- ScoreBaldwin homered to center (426 feet).1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .313 | .392 | .531 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .331 | .381 | .561 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .300 | .383 | .664 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .258 | .319 | .403 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .213 | .289 | .368 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .202 | .265 | .260 |
| Sean Murphy C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Michael Harris II CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .318 | .351 | .551 |
| Eli White CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .222 | .246 | .389 |
| Jorge Mateo SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .289 | .319 | .467 |
| Dominic Smith 1B | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .343 | .375 | .552 |
| Jose Azocar LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JR Ritchie SP· | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 93-47 | 3.63 | 93 |
| Tyler Kinley RP | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23-13 | 2.81 | 23 |
| Aaron Bummer RP | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14-9 | 5.25 | 14 |
| Carlos Carrasco RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19-12 | 0.00 | 19 |
Seattle Mariners
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 28 | .208 | .367 | .333 |
| Julio Rodriguez CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .268 | .338 | .401 |
| Josh Naylor 1B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .223 | .287 | .338 |
| Randy Arozarena LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .273 | .367 | .430 |
| Dominic Canzone RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .270 | .337 | .486 |
| Rob Refsnyder RF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .143 | .213 | .286 |
| Luke Raley RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | .253 | .313 | .516 |
| Connor Joe 1B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .211 | .318 | .421 |
| Cole Young 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .266 | .331 | .383 |
| Mitch Garver C· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .186 | .340 | .209 |
| Leo Rivas 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .141 | .275 | .176 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert SP· | 6.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 89-59 | 4.30 | 89 |
| Jose Ferrer RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16-11 | 2.12 | 16 |
| Eduard Bazardo RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11-6 | 1.15 | 11 |
| Andres Munoz RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14-10 | 5.79 | 14 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 3rd InningBaldwin walked.
- 3rd InningPitch 7 : Ball 4
- 2nd InningRaley walked.
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningCrawford homered to right (357 feet), Garver scored.4–5
- 6th InningRiley homered to left center (427 feet).4–0
- 6th InningOlson homered to center (428 feet).3–0
- 6th InningRaley homered to right center (388 feet), Arozarena scored and Canzone scored.4–3
- 6th InningAlbies homered to center (414 feet).2–0
- 1st InningBaldwin homered to center (426 feet).1–0