BOS @ DET
Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:10 PM ET63°F · 16 mph wind · drizzle❄️ Cold-weather game · 16 mph wind⚾ Payton Tolle vs Tyler HoltonMLB.TVTigers.TV
Result readBoston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 5 · Detroit Tigers 4
Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeComerica ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Boston Red Sox gets the model’s nod thanks to Detroit Tigers’s margin advantage, with Boston Red Sox’s recent run providing the second tip. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 60%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 1.
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 60%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
Injury Report
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 💣 Home RunVierling grounded into fielder's choice to third, Keith scored and Jones scored on throwing error by third baseman Monasterio, Vierling to second.0–2
- ScoreMayer singled to right, Abreu scored, Rafaela to third.5–2
- 🏃 DoubleDingler doubled to left, Vierling scored and Keith scored.5–4
- ScoreAbreu singled to left, Yoshida scored.4–2
- ScoreDuran homered to left (381 feet), Narváez scored and Monasterio scored.3–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 2 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran LF· | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .203 | .260 | .347 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 | .270 | .381 | .475 |
| Roman Anthony LF· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .229 | .354 | .321 |
| Masataka Yoshida LF | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .296 | .415 | .370 |
| Garrett Whitlock RP | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Aroldis Chapman RP | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | .207 | .243 | .296 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .297 | .379 | .453 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .261 | .328 | .360 |
| Marcelo Mayer 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .256 | .320 | .356 |
| Carlos Narvaez C· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .219 | .260 | .342 |
| Andruw Monasterio SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .220 | .291 | .360 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .165 | .254 | .248 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle SP· | 7.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 83-59 | 2.04 | 83 |
| Garrett Whitlock RP | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26-15 | 3.77 | 26 |
| Aroldis Chapman RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-9 | 0.77 | 13 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmai Jones RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | .200 | .238 | .400 |
| Kerry Carpenter RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .211 | .300 | .463 |
| Matt Vierling CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .205 | .268 | .342 |
| Dillon Dingler C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .257 | .328 | .495 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .289 | .389 | .453 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | .217 | .338 | .426 |
| Wenceel Perez RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .150 | .215 | .267 |
| Hao-Yu Lee 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .189 | .250 | .324 |
| Colt Keith 3B· | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .327 | .364 | .396 |
| Zack Short 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Holton RP· | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22-16 | 4.91 | 22 |
| Ty Madden SP | 5.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 81-50 | 0.00 | 81 |
| Ricky Vanasco RP | 0.2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25-12 | 22.50 | 25 |
| Enmanuel De Jesus RP | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 32-23 | 8.44 | 32 |
| Kenley Jansen RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10-5 | 5.40 | 10 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 3rd InningContreras struck out swinging.
- 8th InningCarpenter struck out swinging.
- 3rd InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 2nd InningTorkelson struck out looking.
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningVierling grounded into fielder's choice to third, Keith scored and Jones scored on throwing error by third baseman Monasterio, Vierling to second.0–2
- 7th InningMayer singled to right, Abreu scored, Rafaela to third.5–2
- 8th InningDingler doubled to left, Vierling scored and Keith scored.5–4
- 7th InningAbreu singled to left, Yoshida scored.4–2
- 7th InningDuran homered to left (381 feet), Narváez scored and Monasterio scored.3–2