TOR @ TB
Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Eric Lauer vs Nick MartinezMLB.TVRays.TV
Result readTampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays 1 · Tampa Bay Rays 5
Final
Toronto Blue Jays18-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 40%
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Venue EdgeTropicana FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Tampa Bay Rays on the back of Tampa Bay Rays’s margin work and Tampa Bay Rays’s last-ten momentum. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 61%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 4.
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 61%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Toronto Blue Jays
- Kevin Gausman SP · #34
- Dylan Cease SP · #84
- Braydon Fisher RP · #63
- Mason Fluharty RP · #68
Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Rasmussen SP · #57
- Nick Martinez SP · #28
- Cole Sulser RP · #71
- Griffin Jax RP · #22
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Rays
Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
Toronto Blue Jays
Javen ColemanDay-To-DayNathan Lukes10-Day-ILCJ StubbsDay-To-DayLazaro Estrada15-Day-ILFernando Perezdevelopmental list
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreGuerrero Jr. singled to left, Pinango scored, Okamoto to second.1–3
- ScoreWalls singled to center, Aranda scored and Williamson scored, Fortes to second.1–5
- ScoreVilade homered to left center (413 feet), Simpson scored and Caminero scored.0–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Toronto Blue Jays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yohendrick Pinango LF· | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .500 | .526 | .556 |
| Kazuma Okamoto 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .236 | .322 | .465 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .331 | .416 | .431 |
| Jesus Sanchez LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .250 | .288 | .398 |
| Ernie Clement 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .290 | .315 | .406 |
| Daulton Varsho CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | .235 | .307 | .400 |
| Myles Straw RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | .296 | .371 | .444 |
| Andres Gimenez SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .259 | .287 | .405 |
| Brandon Valenzuela C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .208 | .255 | .396 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer SP· | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 61-44 | 6.03 | 61 |
| Spencer Miles RP | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27-18 | 3.50 | 27 |
| Mason Fluharty RP | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6-6 | 6.57 | 6 |
| Tommy Nance RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-9 | 4.41 | 13 |
| Joe Mantiply RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17-12 | 2.63 | 17 |
Tampa Bay Rays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Simpson LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .299 | .329 | .336 |
| Junior Caminero 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .258 | .347 | .492 |
| Ryan Vilade RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .286 | .333 | .405 |
| Cedric Mullins CF | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .135 | .195 | .231 |
| Yandy Diaz 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .322 | .410 | .488 |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .268 | .363 | .472 |
| Jonny DeLuca RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .278 | .307 | .444 |
| Ben Williamson 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .256 | .323 | .333 |
| Nick Fortes C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .264 | .304 | .356 |
| Taylor Walls SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .197 | .296 | .239 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 71-51 | 1.71 | 71 |
| Ian Seymour RP | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 28-19 | 5.40 | 28 |
| Kevin Kelly RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7-4 | 3.68 | 7 |
| Cole Sulser RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-6 | 2.89 | 10 |
| Casey Legumina RP | 0.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17-13 | 3.77 | 17 |
| Bryan Baker RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3-2 | 2.63 | 3 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningDeLuca grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Aranda out at second.
- 5th InningMullins flied out to right.
- 8th InningWilliamson grounded out to shortstop.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
- 7th InningMullins singled to right.
- 7th InningValenzuela struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 3rd InningGuerrero Jr. singled to left, Pinango scored, Okamoto to second.1–3
- 6th InningWalls singled to center, Aranda scored and Williamson scored, Fortes to second.1–5
- 1st InningVilade homered to left center (413 feet), Simpson scored and Caminero scored.0–3