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InTheRafters.com

CIN @ CHC

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT52°F · 5 mph wind · overcast⚾ Andrew Abbott vs Jameson TaillonMLB.TVReds.TV
Result readChicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds 2 · Chicago Cubs 3

Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Chicago Cubs because Chicago Cubs owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Chicago Cubs has the recent-form edge. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 84%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37
Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreBleday homered to right center (384 feet).1st Inning1–0
  2. ScoreBusch singled to center, Swanson scored.10th Inning2–3
  3. ScoreBregman singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Hoerner to second.7th Inning2–1
  4. ScoreLowe homered to right (404 feet).6th Inning2–0
  5. ScoreBusch homered to right center (427 feet).8th Inning2–2

Scoring by Inning

Team12345678910RHE
Cincinnati Reds1000010000261
Chicago Cubs0000001101381

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
TJ Friedl CF·0-5500000126.190.266.286
JJ Bleday LF·1-4411110117.292.414.833
Dane Myers CF0-000000106.267.411.333
Elly De La Cruz SS·0-5500000123.275.352.528
Sal Stewart 1B·1-4401000217.252.335.496
Nathaniel Lowe 1B·2-4412110112.275.351.609
Spencer Steer LF·1-4401000116.254.328.439
Tyler Stephenson C·1-3301001122.195.297.310
Blake Dunn LF0-000000000.000.000.000
Jose Trevino C0-000000000.158.200.211
Matt McLain 2B·0-4400000015.189.299.283
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B·0-4400000113.121.184.220

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Andrew Abbott SP·5.240044098-575.1398
Connor Phillips RP1.121112028-183.3228
Tony Santillan RP1.011101117-112.8717
Emilio Pagan RP0.00000001-06.431
Jose Franco RP1.000020022-84.9722
Sam Moll RP0.01100002-11.842

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·1-3301002019.300.377.457
Alex Bregman 3B·1-4401101019.245.339.357
Ian Happ LF·0-4400001325.234.372.484
Seiya Suzuki RF·0-4400001026.306.406.541
Dansby Swanson SS·1-5511000016.205.324.393
Michael Busch 1B·3-4413211121.229.331.366
Matt Shaw RF·1-220100006.284.322.469
Moises Ballesteros C0-110000003.302.371.570
Nicky Lopez 3B0-000000000.000.000.000
Michael Conforto RF0-110000014.313.425.531
Daniel Palencia RP0-000000000.000.000.000
Ryan Rolison RP0-000000000.000.000.000
Miguel Amaya C·0-3300001118.218.348.345
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·1-4411000111.237.299.363

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Jameson Taillon SP·5.2522152100-594.24100
Javier Assad SP1.100001017-127.0817
Jacob Webb RP1.000001017-123.9517
Daniel Palencia RP1.010000015-80.0015
Ryan Rolison RP1.000012018-103.1218

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 6th InningStewart struck out swinging.
  2. 6th InningPitch 10 : Strike 3 Swinging
  3. 8th InningFriedl grounded out to first.
  4. 6th InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

Scoring Plays

  1. 1st InningBleday homered to right center (384 feet).1–0
  2. 10th InningBusch singled to center, Swanson scored.2–3
  3. 7th InningBregman singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Hoerner to second.2–1
  4. 6th InningLowe homered to right (404 feet).2–0
  5. 8th InningBusch homered to right center (427 feet).2–2

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