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In The Rafters

CIN @ CHC

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT46°F · 7 mph wind · clear⚾ Brady Singer vs Colin ReaMLB.TVReds.TV
Result readChicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds 6 · Chicago Cubs 7

Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Chicago Cubs27-14-1+1.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.0) · expected win rate 61% · last 10: 80%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Chicago Cubs gets the model’s nod thanks to Chicago Cubs’s margin advantage, with Chicago Cubs’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 84%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

Jeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayJordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37
Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreDe La Cruz grounded out to first, Friedl scored.1st Inning1–0
  2. ScoreCrow-Armstrong homered to left center (375 feet), Kelly scored.9th Inning6–6
  3. ScoreSteer homered to left center (411 feet).9th Inning3–4
  4. ScoreBusch walked, Hoerner scored, Suzuki to second, Bregman to third.10th Inning6–7
  5. ScoreBleday singled to right, Benson scored, McLain to second, Stephenson to third.9th Inning4–4
  6. ScoreHapp homered to left center (399 feet), Bregman scored.1st Inning1–2

Scoring by Inning

Team12345678910RHE
Cincinnati Reds10001000406100
Chicago Cubs20020000217101

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
TJ Friedl CF·1-3311001117.194.273.287
Dane Myers CF0-110000017.261.404.326
JJ Bleday LF·2-5502100224.310.412.759
Elly De La Cruz SS·0-4400300225.267.341.514
Sal Stewart 1B·0-4400001018.245.331.482
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B0-000000000.121.184.220
Nathaniel Lowe 1B·1-4401001118.274.354.589
Blake Dunn LF0-000000000.000.000.000
Spencer Steer LF·1-5511110120.252.323.454
Will Benson RF·2-4412001019.214.333.393
Jose Trevino C·0-330000006.136.174.182
Tyler Stephenson C1-111100001.205.304.318
Matt McLain 2B·2-3322110011.200.307.315

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Brady Singer SP·6.064416196-605.6396
Sam Moll RP0.220000011-61.7611
Pierce Johnson RP0.10000005-44.055
Tejay Antone RP1.000002012-90.0012
Graham Ashcraft RP1.022201127-171.9327
Brock Burke RP0.201031011-53.2411

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·0-5510000015.290.365.441
Moises Ballesteros C·0-3300000215.292.360.551
Matt Shaw RF0-000000000.284.322.469
Michael Conforto RF0-110000005.303.415.515
Miguel Amaya C0-000000002.218.348.345
Alex Bregman 3B·1-4411001218.245.341.354
Ian Happ LF·3-5523210122.248.379.511
Seiya Suzuki RF·1-4411101118.303.406.539
Michael Busch 1B·1-3301102221.231.340.366
Carson Kelly C·1-4411000117.311.404.422
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·2-3312210016.246.311.391
Dansby Swanson SS·1-4401000113.207.322.388

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Colin Rea SP·5.162135198-594.0398
Jacob Webb RP1.200001014-113.5214
Phil Maton RP1.000001012-98.6412
Corbin Martin RP0.033300111-610.8011
Hoby Milner RP1.011111025-122.5525
Trent Thornton RP1.00000006-40.006

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningTyler Stephenson challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Michael Busch called out on strikes.
  2. 5th InningDe La Cruz struck out swinging.
  3. 9th InningPitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking
  4. 9th InningMyers struck out swinging.
  5. 8th InningDe La Cruz struck out swinging.

Scoring Plays

  1. 1st InningDe La Cruz grounded out to first, Friedl scored.1–0
  2. 9th InningCrow-Armstrong homered to left center (375 feet), Kelly scored.6–6
  3. 9th InningSteer homered to left center (411 feet).3–4
  4. 10th InningBusch walked, Hoerner scored, Suzuki to second, Bregman to third.6–7
  5. 9th InningBleday singled to right, Benson scored, McLain to second, Stephenson to third.4–4
  6. 1st InningHapp homered to left center (399 feet), Bregman scored.1–2
  7. 4th InningKelly grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Suzuki scored, Busch out at second.1–4
  8. 9th InningDe La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to right, Stephenson scored and McLain scored.6–4
  9. 5th InningMcLain homered to right center (371 feet).2–4
  10. 4th InningSuzuki doubled to left, Happ scored.1–3

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