InTheRafters.com

CIN @ CHC

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:20 PM CT59°F · 9 mph wind · drizzle⚾ Rhett Lowder vs Shota ImanagaMLB.TVReds.TV
Result readChicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds 3 · Chicago Cubs 8

Final
Cincinnati Reds20-19-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.0) · expected win rate 40% · last 10: 10%
Chicago Cubs27-12-1+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.2) · expected win rate 63% · last 10: 100%
Venue EdgeWrigley FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Chicago Cubs gets the model’s nod thanks to Chicago Cubs’s margin advantage, with Chicago Cubs’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Chicago Cubs at 85%. Actual: Chicago Cubs by 5.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

Jordan Wicks15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar15-Day-ILJeff BrighamDay-To-DayJaxon WigginsDay-To-DayMatthew Boyd15-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

Caleb Ferguson15-Day-ILJosh StaumontDay-To-DayRhett LowderDay-To-DayEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37
Chicago Cubs
IH Ian Happ LF · #8 PC Crow-Armstrong CF · #4 MS Matt Shaw RF · #6 AB Alex Bregman 3B · #3 DS Dansby Swanson SS · #7 NH Nico Hoerner 2B · #2 MB Michael Busch 1B · #29 EC Edward Cabrera P · #30 MB M. Ballesteros C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreConforto walked, Bregman scored, Busch to second, Happ to third.4th Inning0–2
  2. ScoreBallesteros hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.4th Inning0–8
  3. ScoreAmaya singled to center, Swanson scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.4th Inning0–6
  4. ScoreDunn homered to left center (393 feet).8th Inning2–8
  5. ScoreStewart homered to left center (393 feet).6th Inning1–8
  6. ScoreSwanson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Happ scored, Conforto to second, Busch out at third.4th Inning0–3

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Cincinnati Reds000001011390
Chicago Cubs01070000—871

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Dane Myers CF·0-4400000315.240.377.300
Will Benson RF0-000000107.214.343.393
Matt McLain 2B·1-4401001126.201.310.313
Elly De La Cruz SS·1-5501000116.265.337.510
Sal Stewart 1B·1-4421111123.245.333.497
Spencer Steer LF·1-3301002021.254.333.451
Tyler Stephenson C·0-4400001219.196.299.304
JJ Bleday LF·1-4401101016.303.410.727
Blake Dunn LF·2-4412111221.500.6001.250
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B·2-4402000110.137.196.232
Nathaniel Lowe 1B0-110000017.270.349.581

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Rhett Lowder SP·3.013341159-285.4059
Connor Phillips RP1.045510027-145.4027
Luis Mey RP2.010011039-201.8039
Jose Franco RP2.010011023-134.3023

Chicago Cubs

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner 2B·1-4411101016.289.366.443
Moises Ballesteros C·0-4400100017.280.343.527
Alex Bregman 3B·0-3310001012.240.339.347
Ian Happ LF·0-3310001219.243.376.500
Michael Busch 1B·1-4401000018.232.337.362
Michael Conforto RF·3-3323211013.361.467.667
Dansby Swanson SS·0-3310101020.202.320.379
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF·1-3311101011.248.316.390
Miguel Amaya C·1-2211201122.228.371.351

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Shota Imanaga SP·6.0611310199-692.2899
Trent Thornton RP1.010010026-120.0026
Gavin Hollowell RP1.222241149-2610.8049
Daniel Palencia RP0.10000107-40.007

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningNathaniel Lowe challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Nathaniel Lowe called out on strikes.
  2. 9th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking
  3. 8th InningBenson walked.

Scoring Plays

  1. 4th InningConforto walked, Bregman scored, Busch to second, Happ to third.0–2
  2. 4th InningBallesteros hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.0–8
  3. 4th InningAmaya singled to center, Swanson scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–6
  4. 8th InningDunn homered to left center (393 feet).2–8
  5. 6th InningStewart homered to left center (393 feet).1–8
  6. 4th InningSwanson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Happ scored, Conforto to second, Busch out at third.0–3
  7. 4th InningHoerner doubled to center, Amaya scored, Hoerner to third.0–7
  8. 4th InningCrow-Armstrong singled to center, Conforto scored, Swanson to third.0–4
  9. 9th InningBleday doubled to shortstop, Stewart scored, Stephenson to third.3–8
  10. 2nd InningConforto homered to right center (407 feet).0–1

Trending