Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:35 PM ET55°F · 8 mph wind · overcast⚾ Max Fried vs Kyle BradishESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVPrime Video
Model pickNew York Yankees

New York Yankees 5.8 · Baltimore Orioles 3.4

68%confidence
New York Yankees26-13+1.9 net/g (SOS-adj +1.6) · expected win rate 69% · last 10: 70%
Baltimore Orioles17-22-1-0.9 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeOriole Park at Camden YardsHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

New York Yankees is the model’s call — New York Yankees on the margin numbers, New York Yankees on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. New York Yankees is 70% over their recent sample; Baltimore Orioles is 30%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. New York Yankees projects 69% from points-for vs points-allowed; Baltimore Orioles sits at 41%.
  • Pitching matchup. Max Fried (New York Yankees) vs. Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles).

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

New York Yankees

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

Blaze AlexanderDay-To-DayKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayLuis VazquezDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILWill RobertsonDay-To-Day

New York Yankees

Carlos Rodon15-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton10-Day-ILRyan WeathersDay-To-DayBen HessDay-To-DayGerrit Cole15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Recent Form

Baltimore Orioles

  • L@ NYY12-1
  • W@ MIA9-7
  • W@ MIA7-4
  • L@ MIA4-3
  • Lvs ATH4-3

New York Yankees

  • Wvs BAL12-1
  • Wvs TEX7-4
  • Lvs TEX6-1
  • Wvs TEX9-2
  • L@ MIL6-0

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