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Recent Form

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • W@ LAA6-0
  • W@ LAA15-2
  • W@ LAA10-1
  • L@ SD1-0
  • W@ SD5-4

Philadelphia Phillies

  • W@ PIT11-9 F/10
  • W@ PIT6-0
  • W@ PIT6-0
  • Wvs CIN5-4
  • Lvs CIN4-1

Game Read

A transparent matchup read built from team strength, recent scoreboard history, league volatility, and available starter/bullpen context. It is analysis, not betting advice.

Day GameOutdoor1:10 PM PT66°F · 9 mph wind · clearESPN UnlmtdMLB.TV
Projected leanLos Angeles Dodgers

Philadelphia Phillies 3.5 · Los Angeles Dodgers 5.2

66%confidence
Philadelphia Phillies25-24-1-0.4 net/g (schedule-adjusted -0.4) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 80%
Los Angeles Dodgers30-19+1.9 net/g (schedule-adjusted +1.7) · expected win rate 70% · last 10: 60%
Home VenueDodger StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating points

Two reasons the projection lands on Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers’s scoring margin profile and Philadelphia Phillies’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Philadelphia Phillies is 80% over their recent sample; Los Angeles Dodgers is 60%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Los Angeles Dodgers projects 70% from points-for vs points-allowed; Philadelphia Phillies sits at 46%.

Model: rafty-v2.0. Inputs: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed, schedule-adjusted margin, recent form, rest, home venue, league volatility, and MLB starter/bullpen context when available. Refreshes whenever game pages republish.

Interactive Rafty tool

Rafty Game Lab

Move the context sliders to see how Rafty’s matchup lean reacts before it becomes a public pick.

rafty-v2.0
Current lean Los Angeles Dodgers
66% Los Angeles Dodgers win probability 66%

Move a control to see what would swing the pick.

    Why This Pick?

    • Los Angeles Dodgers: Team baseline+17.5
    • Los Angeles Dodgers: Home venue+1.0
    Model check
    Live model: Los Angeles Dodgers 66%
    v3 candidate: Philadelphia Phillies 66%
    Different pick; home probability -31.7 pp, confidence +0.4 pp
    • Philadelphia Phillies: day start profile -1.31
    • Philadelphia Phillies: scoring-margin gap -0.51
    • Los Angeles Dodgers: expected-win gap +0.34
    Preview v3 controls
    Copies or saves the current sliders and toggles.
    Scenario presets

    For entertainment and analysis only. This tool does not use betting odds, spreads, parlays, or wagering advice.

    Key Players to Watch

    Injury Report

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    Gavin Stone60-Day-ILLandon Knack60-Day-ILEnrique Hernandez60-Day-ILBobby Miller60-Day-ILJack Dreyer15-Day-IL

    Philadelphia Phillies

    Kyle SchwarberDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayMax Lazar60-Day-ILRene PintoDay-To-Day
    On The Diamond

    A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

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