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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET
Model pickPittsburgh Pirates

Los Angeles Dodgers 4.4 · Pittsburgh Pirates 4.6

61%confidence
Los Angeles Dodgers24-17+1.5 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 66% · last 10: 40%
Pittsburgh Pirates23-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 58% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pittsburgh Pirates gets the model’s nod thanks to Los Angeles Dodgers’s margin advantage, with Pittsburgh Pirates’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Pittsburgh Pirates is 70% over their recent sample; Los Angeles Dodgers is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Los Angeles Dodgers projects 66% from points-for vs points-allowed; Pittsburgh Pirates sits at 58%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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