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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor12:10 PM PT
Model pickTampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays 4.4 · Los Angeles Dodgers 4.3

63%confidence
Tampa Bay Rays27-13-1+0.6 net/g (SOS-adj +0.7) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Los Angeles Dodgers24-17+1.5 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 66% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeDodger StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Tampa Bay Rays gets the model’s nod thanks to Los Angeles Dodgers’s margin advantage, with Tampa Bay Rays’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Tampa Bay Rays is 85% over their recent sample; Los Angeles Dodgers is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Los Angeles Dodgers projects 66% from points-for vs points-allowed; Tampa Bay Rays sits at 56%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Tampa Bay Rays

Los Angeles Dodgers

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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